Not easy for bulls – Nifty View 23-27 May

Weak global  cues and stringent measures on P-notes did not allow markets to break beyond resistance last week. Out of 5 trading sessions bulls have shown strength in 3 trading session to begin with, however they did not have courage to take prices further up and lost to the bears in last 2 trading sessions of the week. 

We are entering in F&O expiry week. Will this week decide the trend for next month?  

Technical Overview: Last week Nifty made a high of 7940 and low of 7735 to close at 7749. That was a range of 205 points. Bulls have lost all the gains they had earned in last to last week. Weekly candle closed near low with somewhat sluggish sentiments. The good news for bulls is that the Nifty is now trading near an important support. Nifty has filled up a gap near 7738. 

Supports are 7738, 7710-7700 and 7570 

Resistance is near 7780, 7815 and 7866 

My View: If current broad trading range is to continue, Nifty need to give strong upward pullback from current level. There is high possibility that Nifty will recover in early trading session in next week.  

However If Nifty breaks below 7678, there will be next lap of fall till next support near 7570 

I have enclosed the chart below to understand the levels on chart 

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Nifty Analysis for 20 May

Yesterday Nifty broke below important support of 7810. This support is expected to act as resistance today. If Nifty bonunces at opening to 7800-7810 levels, expect selling pressures from there. Short selling targets can can be up to next support level at 7740. Nifty chart has a leftover gap at 7740 level. Current setup of uptrend is still intact on daily chart. Click here to read Nifty view for the week. Nifty 15 min Chart   Swing/positional trades for the day: Sell Andhra Bank for target of 47.80. Stoploss is 49.60 Buy Jubilliant Food for target of 1100. Stoploss is 1168 Buy Pidilite for target of 630. Stoploss is 609   Article Godfrey Philips- Trading near multi-year support SBI Chart Analysis- Sell Head & Shoulder breakdown in SBI Recent gainers recommended by us Our Portfolio holding Subros hit upper circuit with 20% gains yesterday. SKS Micro Finance up 19% from buying price Berger Paint up 24% from buying price M&M Financial Services up 32% from buying price (Booked)

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Nifty Analysis for 19 May

Nifty Analysis for 19 May Larger picture: As mentioned in my weekly view Nifty is trading in broad range with bullish bias. We are experiencing buying in Nifty from every dip. For the day, Nifty is trading near its resistance and can see some pressure from current levels. Support is near 7850 and 7810 level. If Nifty breaks current resistance at 7895 we may see further upmove till 7930. Click here to read Nifty view for the week. Nifty 15 min Chart   Swing/positional trades for the day: Sell ZEE Entertainment for target of 425. Stoploss is 440 Buy Hexaware for target of 226. Stoploss is 212 Buy Union Bank for target of 114. Stoploss is 108 Buy Lupin for target of 1690. Stoploss is 1600 New article Godfrey Philips- Trading near multi-year support SBI Chart Analysis- Sell Head & Shoulder breakdown in SBI Recent gainers recommended by us Our Portfolio holding Subros hit upper circuit with 20% gains yesterday. SKS Micro Finance up 19% from buying price Berger Paint up24% from buying price M&M Financial Services up 32% from buying price (Booked)

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Godfrey Philips- Trading near multi-year support

Tobacco companies are vulnerable to increasing taxes and changing govt. policies. However large profit margins makes them an attractive business model.

Godfrey Philips is one among largest Cigarette Manufacturers in India. 

I am splitting this analysis in long term and short term.

Long Term Analysis-

For your reference I have attached monthly chart of Godfrey Philips. As seen on chart the stock was trading in narrow bands for multiple years. These bands have come in 3 phases. 

Phase 1- From April 2005 till June 2009. 

During this phase chart was trading in a broad range of 120-340. Stock broke out of this congestion in June 2009. 

Phase 2- After breaking out of congestion in 2009 it registered a high of 442. However it went into trading band again with price range of 345-442. It remained in this range till May 2011.

Phase 3- In June 2011 stock broke out of second congestion band to enter into the 3rd phase of range bound trade. This range was in broad price band of 420-800.

After these consecutive phases of congestions the stock  broke with good volumes in Oct 2015  to double the price in just 3 months.

Large gains can be followed by profit bookings. Same thing happened with Godfrey Philips. Stock came down heavily from Jan 2016 till the current month.

Now the chart is trading near a strong support of 800. This is the price from where the chart has broken out of 3rd congestion phase. 

That makes it a very attractive level to enter into. Buying at current level of 887 and adding more quantity till stop-loss of 800 can looks an attractive proposition. Long term target can be around 1400.

Short Term Analysis-

On daily chart there seem to be good momentum with volume on 17 May. We know that the stock is trading near monthly support. If 17 May momentum is to continue chart should reach to its next resistance level of around 1100. That can give us the gains of 20% in next 15-20 trading sessions.

Nifty Analysis for 18 May

Nifty Analysis for 18 May Yesterday’s Invereted Hammer on daily chart is suggesting negative sentiments for the time being. For the day Nifty may trade with bearish bias. A gap down as suggested by SGX Nifty near 7860 may see some short covering.  As a result, Nifty can move up to its first resistance near 7890 to move down from there. Alternatively Nifty can break below 7855 level immediately after opening to see further downside of around 30 points to its next support at 7830. Next support is near 7815. Click here to read Nifty view for the week. Nifty 15 min Chart   Swing/positional trades for the day: Buy BPCL for target of 964. Stoploss is 930 Sell Glenmark for target of 846. Stoploss is 878 Buy IGL for target of 605. Stoploss is 579 SBI Chart Analysis- Sell Head & Shoulder breakdown in SBI Recent gainers recommended by us SKS Micro Finance up 18% from buying price Berger Paint up23% from buying price M&M Financial Services up 32% from buying price (Booked)

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SBI - Breaking below Head & Shoulder neckline

Sell Head & Shoulder breakdown in SBI Yesterday SBI (State Bank of India) broken its important support. The breakdown has come with large volumes. It is clearly seen from the charts that the stock is breaking out of Head & Shoulder Pattern. The neckline is broken and the price is closed below it near 177. H&S pattern gives us an indication of short term trend change. It is formed at the end of a “Higher Top Higher Bottom cycle”. The cycle of HTHB forms an uptrend. We know that SBI has been in an uptrend. Yesterday this uptrend is broken with conviction. The stock may get into a downtrend for a short period. Target- Trade: Sell Target - 165 Stoploss - 183 Check the chart here for levels marked.

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Nifty analysis for 17 May

Nifty Analysis for 17 May On a larger time frame (daily / weekly) Nifty is trading in a range with bullish bias. So for the day we shall buy on dips. On 15 min chart Nifty has support near 7835 and then at 7815. Go long near supports at 7835 and 7815 for target of 7900. Go long in case Nifty breaks beyond 7907 resistance. Don’t go short in this market Click here to read Nifty view for the week. Nifty 15 min Chart    Swing/positional trades for the day: Buy TV 18 Broadcast for target of 44. Stoploss is 40 Buy Federal Bank for target of 53. Stoploss is 50 Sell SBI for target of 167. Stoploss is 181 Read this stock analysis – A midcap software company – on the verge of range breakout Recent gainers recommended by us SKS Micro Finance up 18% from buying price Berger Paint up23% from buying price M&M Financial Services up 32% from buying price (Booked)

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