Update - Up Flag formation- Time Technoplast

Time Technoplast had an up Flag formation on 17 March 17. I have reproduced below the article of analysis done on 17 March. The up Flag formation in Time Technoplast has made the stock move from the then price of 116.45 to 208.9 today. That's a gain of 79% from the recommended price of 116. Keep reading this blog for more such analysis. 

My analysis is based on simple thought process. As all of us know that one has to have patience in stock markets, so is the case here as well. However, my thrust is on taking minimum risk. A CAGR of 40%-50% is what I look forward to. I thrive to have stocks in my watchlist and pick them up when I feel they are ready for an up-move.

Below is the article written on 17 March 2017 on Time Technoplast

Up Flag formation- Time Technoplast

Time Technoplast is a company manufacturing plastic products like Drums, Containers, Conipails, Petsheets etc.

This analysis below is on weekly chart. You can see that the stock was in consolidation phase since Sep 2016. This consolidation was in a broad range of 88 to 100. The consolidation has come after an expansion period which took the stock price from 49 to 100 in period of approximately 9 months.
We know that the periods of expansion are followed by consolidation and so on.
We can expect that the current period of consolidation is over and stock is ready for phase of expansion.

Update - Wockhardt Pharma - Accumulation in progress?

You might recollect analysis of Wockhardt Pharma on October 9, 2017.
 The accumulation is usually followed by a sharp rise in price, as was mentioned in the analysis.

The stock is currently trading near 880. On Oct 9, at the time I wrote this analysis, the stock was trading near 635. Enjoy the gains.

Reproduced below is the article on Wockhardt Pharma written on Oct 9, 2017

Wockhardt Pharma - Accumulation in progress?

Wockhardt Pharma - Short Analysis

Wockhardt Pharma fall from its high in Apr 2015 is almost 80%. That took the stock to an attractive buying price with an 80% discount. Currently stock is trading near 635. Many would want to accumulate this share at current price. This is precisely what is seen on the chart. After a mega fall there is a consolidation on chart. This consolidation might be due to steady buying at currently levels. This buying may take the stock to higher levels.
The next hurdle is at around 830. If the stocks breaks this hurdle successfully, the next one is around 1250.  This might take couple of years.
I would trade this stock with a loss exit of around 540.

Ajanta Pharma - Bulls in action

Ajanta Pharma Ltd.

Briefly, Fundamentals about the company-
Company is in manufacturing drugs.
Company has almost zero debt.
Stock is now trading at a PE of 27.
Company has been consistently making profits and the profit growth is 49%

Technical Analysis-
The first chart below is a daily chart showing the chart area between Aug 2014 till date.
You can see a horizontal line marked on the chart. This line acts as a support. This also means that buying was expected to start near support. Rightly so the stock bounce up from the level of 1130.

The second chart below is also a daily chart showing a closer picture. We know that stock moves in repeated cycles of downtrend, sideways trend and uptrend. Once the uptrend starts it is expected to continue for some period of time.
You can see similar Cycle of LTLB (downtrend represented by Lower Top Lower Bottom) followed by a Sideways Cycle and then beginning of Cycle of HTHB (uptrend represented by Higher Top Higher Bottom).
A breakout on 20 Nov and 8 Dec are confirming the start of upward trend.
This is also confirmed by the improved volumes on chart.

Last chart below is a monthly chart. The stock has fallen from around 2120 to level of 1130. This is almost 50% fall from its top. We can assume that the correction cycle of Ajanta pharma is now over and the uptrend started may continue for substantial period to come.
When I wrote this article, the stock was trading near 1445. If one starts accumulating the stock at current  level and wait for period of 1-2 years can reap returns of 70-80% on amount invested. 

Opportunities in Dwarikesh Sugar

Dwarikesh Sugar - Short Analysis

We have seen a lackluster performance from sugar sector in recent past. At least currently it is not moving the way it was during June 17 to Oct 17.
The sector as a whole and the stock (Dwarikesh) corrected substantially in last 2 months.
Question is whether the opportunities are over in this stock or we should treat this correction as entry opportunity.
You can see the weekly chart of Dwarikesh Sugar below. On this chart you can see that the stock is falling ( correcting) since beginning of Nov 17 when it was trading around 79. It is still not giving the symptoms of recovery. Now the stock is trading near 53. This is a fall of more than 30% from the high.
You can see a range named 'Accumulation Zone' marked on chart. This range is a support area. One can expect buying to start in this zone. One can start buying Dwarikesh Sugar when it trades between 48 and 39.
Place the stop just below 39 and exit, if it falls below it.
The stock can see an upside of more than 40% from the recommended buying level.

Intellect Design Arena - Change in trend

Intellect Design Arena (INTELLECT)

Short Analysis-

The stock has been correcting since last about 10 months. The quantum of the fall is about 65% from its top. The stock has good support near level of 97-110. This support was created when the stock had given a breakout in July 2015.

In Aug 17 the stock reached back to the same level of around 97-100. You can see the trend line marked on daily and weekly chart. This trend line was acting as resistance and was not allowing the stock to move beyond. During the week ended 15 Sep 17 the stock broken out this resistance. That was first symptom that the stock can change its trend from down to up. During last week (Ended on 3 Nov 17) you can see increase in volumes and bullish candles formation on chart.

Expect the stock to continue this uptrend. 

Daily Time Frame

Weekly Time Frame

Ramky Infrastructure - 75.6% in 7 months and counting

On March 23 we had identified this stock. The stock, at that time was trading at 106. The breakout so identified took the stock to 186. While writing this article the stock is about to reach its next resistance. 

Happy Investing

I have reproduced the same article below-

Ramky Infrastrucure - Potential to double from current level

Ramky Infrastructure -

The stock has been trading in range for long period of 5 years. Stock has tried to break out of strong resistance near 89 in July 14 and July 16 but could not succeed. In the process the stock has formed pattern known as Rounding Bottom. A breakout of rounding bottom can give good targets.

You can see on the monthly chart below the stock has moved up with good volumes and currently trading near 106. This move has come up with huge volumes. The stock can double from current level in an year or so.

Wockhardt Pharma - Accumulation in progress?

Wockhardt Pharma - Short Analysis

Wockhardt Pharma fall from its high in Apr 2015 is almost 80%. That took the stock to an attractive buying price with an 80% discount. Currently stock is trading near 635. Many would want to accumulate this share at current price. This is precisely what is seen on the chart. After a mega fall there is a consolidation on chart. This consolidation might be due to steady buying at currently levels. This buying may take the stock to higher levels.
The next hurdle is at around 830. If the stocks breaks this hurdle successfully, the next one is around 1250.  This might take couple of years.
I would trade this stock with a loss exit of around 540.

40% upside from current levels - Deep Industries

Analysis of Deep Industries -
Here is monthly chart of Deep Industries. The stock has retraced 61% from its top. Now it is trading near a support. The stock can move up by 40-50% from current levels. Level of around 190 can be exit level in loss and around 300-310 can be exit level in profits. 

Disclaimer: This blog is an informational blog. The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. Articles written here are purely educational in nature and not an investment or trading advise. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI Registered Analyst or Investment Adviser or a Research Analyst. Readers are advised to consult their Investment Adviser before taking any decisions based on above write-up.  

Correction on cards? - Nifty view Week starting 22 May 17

Corrections are healthy for markets to grow. 

A Hanging Man pattern (candle of 17 May) on daily chart as seen below was the first indication of a gap down. That gap down has come the next day (18 May) and markets fell by more than 90 points on Thursday. An attempt to recover on Friday got sold and markets ended in red off the low. These are early signs of corrections. However we can not predict the quantum of the correction.

As you can see on the chart below, there are 2 supports. One is at 9360 and next is immediately in the range of 9338 and 9297. These 2 are areas of hope for markets to turn up again.

Daily Chart of Nifty

On a little larger scale as seen on weekly chart below, the selling pressure is indicated by a Gravestone Doji formation. Yet there is no confirmation of a correction on weekly chart.
We have 9297 as crucial level. If this level breaks on closing basis the next week, we might assume the start of a substantial correction. If this happens the next major support is at 9000.

Nifty weekly chart

Nifty breaks out of range - What next?

Last week we had mentioned about a range between 8970 and 9270. The Nifty was trading in this range. We had also mentioned that Nifty has to break out of this range on either side to get a clear direction. Nifty broke upper level of the range on 25th Apr. We can safely assume that Nifty is on its way to continue its journey Northwards, unless some bad news comes in.

What next?

Broadly Nifty is in bull run and is expected to continue with it. Every correction is a buying opportunity in Nifty. After breaking out of 9270, Nifty has corrected a bit to test the level again. We can assume Nifty to bounce again from this level.
If Nifty breaks below 9270, the next immediate support is near 9220.
Both these support levels are buying opportunities in Nifty.

Nifty View for the week 24th Apr

Since last 2 weeks we have been saying that the Nifty is currently trading in a range (With negative bias). Lower end of the range is around 8990. On Friday Nifty managed to close above this level.
Higher end of this range is around 9270. Nifty need to break either of these level to give us a clear direction.

Since Nifty is trading near a small support within this range, which is near 9110, lets understand how one can trade Nifty now. My view is that if Nifty breaks below this level convincingly it can move further below till its next major support near 8990. This is lower end of the channel.

As Nifty is currently trading near a support, short term traders can look to buy Nifty for a bounce of 50-75 points from current level.

Broadly speaking neither bulls nor the bears are in charge of the markets. It seems like some time will be spent in the range mentioned above.

Nifty View - Markets may continue to consolidate

Last week we had hinted at possible correction in Nifty. Important levels given last week were 9160 and 9133. You can see from Nifty chart, that Nifty tried to move up a bit from support at 9160. The level finally broken. Currently Nifty is trading near our next support 9133. This support is a range from 9133-9110. I feel Nifty has good support at this level. Holding this level is important for bulls. Lets hope that some demand will be created at this level and help markets pull up.

If Nifty breaks below 9110 it may undergo substantial correction of another 75-100 points

Nifty View - Wait for further long

Nifty View for the week starting 10 Apr 17-

On Friday Nifty fell by 63 points to close near 9197. This is one of the biggest fall in one day in recent past. 

We know that markets can not run one way. At upper levels you will experience profit booking. This profit booking will make markets move down. 

One such profit booking (Long Unwinding) is seen in Nifty at higher levels on Friday. I have explained this with the help of 60 min chart below. On 60 min chart you can see that Nifty broke below a good support near 9220. This can be start of down trend on 60 mins chart. There are 2 important supports near 9160 and 9133 apart from the current level at 9190. 

On a lager (Weekly) time frame a inverted hammer candle at the top is just an indication of Bulls Exhaustion. This is just indicating that the markets can remain in a range or see some selling pressure unless it breaks above 9273. Every dip in price will be buying opportunity, as the long term trend is very much up.

Breakout in Daawat (LT Foods)

A consolidation breakout in Daawat (LT Foods) is seen on daily chart. You can see that this breakout has come with good volumes. In the process it has formed a pattern called Flag Pattern. The target of Flag pattern is usually large.

Expect 100% returns in Donear

After RAMKY (I had written a small post on RAMKY few days back) Donear is another stock which is forming a nice Rounding Bottom pattern on monthly chart. If the stock breaks and sustains above 78, it has potential to move up to much higher levels. the next resistance is near 160. 

This is might take few months- still worth doubling your money, say in a years time.

Nifty View for the week starting 3 Apr

Nifty view:

Financial year 16-17 is behind us. The day on 31st March was a month, week and day end for markets. Hence in this article lets understand broader (medium term) and closer (short term) view of Nifty.

Medium term:

You can see below monthly chart of Nifty. On monthly chart Nifty has formed a long upward sloping channel. On the close of March-2017 month Nifty has closed at its all time high breaking earlier resistance. We can expect this bull run to continue for next few months. Of-course there will be small corrections during this journey. If we are to believe above theory then Nifty can reach to its next resistance near upper sloping line. The target for this run comes near 10,200- 10,400.

Short Term:

On weekly chart a similar picture emerges. On each correction Nifty is a buy for higher targets.

On a very short scale Nifty has immediate support near 9110 and resistance near 9210. Rather Nifty is trading in this (9110-9210) range of 100 points. A breakout or breakdown beyond this level will make further picture clear. 

Ramky Infrastrucure - Potential to double from current level

Ramky Infrastructure -

The stock has been trading in range for long period of 5 years. Stock has tried to break out of strong resistance near 89 in July 14 and July 16 but could not succeed. In the process the stock has formed pattern known as Rounding Bottom. A breakout of rounding bottom can give good targets.

You can see on the monthly chart below the stock has moved up with good volumes and currently trading near 106. This move has come up with huge volumes. The stock can double from current level in an year or so.

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Nifty view for the week starting 20th March

For last 3-4 weeks we have been writing about the new bull run once Nifty closes beyond 8960.
The much awaited penetration of Nifty in the new uncharted territory has begun on 14 March after the election results of UP were declared.
On that day Nifty gaped up by almost 160 points. At the close of this week Nifty is trading near 9160.
We can safely assume that a new run of upward momentum has started in Nifty. How to trade this momentum can be debatable. This is because Nifty has gaped up and is still trading near all time high without the gap being filled up.
We can expect this gap to be filled up sooner or later. There is a good amount of open interest increase in Call Options for strike price of 9200. It means that call writers are not willing to let Nifty go beyond this point easily.
Be patient, let Nifty correct. It has good support near 8990. That would be good level to enter long positions.

Below is closer as well as a larger view of Nifty both on Weekly time frame-

Up Flag formation- Time Technoplast

Time Technoplast is a company manufacturing plastic products like Drums, Containers, Conipails, Petsheets etc.

This analysis below is on weekly chart. You can see that the stock was in consolidation phase since Sep 2016. This consolidation was in a broad range of 88 to 100. The consolidation has come after an expansion period which took the stock price from 49 to 100 in period of approximately 9 months.
We know that the periods of expansion are followed by consolidation and so on.
We can expect that the current period of consolidation is over and stock is ready for phase of expansion.

19% gains in BHEL - Inverted Head & Shoulder breakout

We had recommended BHEL on breaking out of Head and Shoulder pattern on 30 Jan 17. 

Today the stock is trading at 165. Thats a gain of 19% since we recommended the stock.

You can check the article which was written then below

BHEL - Inverted Head & Shoulder breakout

Bhel was trading in a downtrend on daily chart since Sep 16. Stock was trying to get into a new cycle of higher top higher bottom from its existing downtrend. For short term, the current Head & Shoulder breakout can act as confirmation to this theory.

BPCL offering a discount when others are trading near highs

BPCL is trading near an attractive level. Current level is seen as a good support. Near this level the stock has also formed a double bottom-ish pattern which makes us believe that it is willing to gain momentum here on.

Reliance Industries- beginning of a new journey

On December 27 we had anticipated a breakout in Reliance Industries long term chart.& years long consolidation finally broke and Reliance Industries has begin its new journey.

Click here to read article on Reliance Industries on 27 December 17

Have also reproduced the same article at the end of this post for your reference.

Here is latest monthly chart of Reliance Industries.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Read below old article dated 27 Dec 17

Reliance Industries Ascending Triangle

Reliance Industries

A frustrating consolidation continues in this large cap. This consolidation is referred to as Ascending Triangle. A breakout is expected after the consolidation. This time since this is an ascending triangle the breakout can be on upper side of the price. 

27.8% gains in Justdial within a month

We had spotted Head and Shoulder Breakout in Justdial on 10 Feb 17 when it was trading at 427.

The stock is trading at 546 on 3rd March 2017 with total gains of 27.8%

You can check earlier article here - Justdial - Head & Shoulder breakout

Reproducing the article below for your reference:

Justdial - Head & Shoulder breakout

Justdial has been in down trend since Jan 2015. The stock has been continuously witnessing a fall and the stock is down by whooping 75%. This head and shoulder breakout can be a start of short term uptrend in the stock.

20% gains in Jubilant Foodworks

Had recommended Jubilant Foodworks on 18 Jan 17.
The stock has closed on 1056 on week ended 3 March 2017
The stock has gained 19.8% since then.

Below is the link of my post on 18 Jan 17
Click here to read old article

Here is that article reproduced for you.
Jubilant Foodworks - Low hanging fruit?

Monthly chart - trading near an attractive support

Nifty view for the week starting 27 Feb

If you go by last week's comment, I had said Nifty need to closed above 8960, which is previous high, for it to start new bull run. Nifty is still struggling to close beyond this point.
Detailed view with levels is available to our premium subscribers.

TCS- Changing the trend

Markets / Stocks runs in cycles-

For an early entry you need to identify a change in the cycle (trend). 

In this case TCS was so far trading in sideways trend. With a breakout in last 3-4 days there is an evidence that there is a probable change of trend in TCS. So the new trend is an uptrend.

TCS daily chart below-

Nifty - Trading with strength but deserves a rest

Most of the important events are past us. The good thing about these events was that they have let India VIX move hardly. This shows the maturity on part of market participants as well as on part of government. The Union Budget and RBI policy were instrumental in not creating hype of these events. They seem to be well focused on essentials as compared to their predecessors. Yes, I mean it.

Lets see how Nifty looks like on Technical charts. 

Below is the daily chart of Nifty. Notice the narrow channel in which Nifty is trading. This channel Nifty is trading at the stretched levels near higher end of the channel. Last 3 days repeated hanging men, however are suggesting that the bulls are exhausted for the time being. As a trader I would wi

sh to enter at the cheaper levels than this. The support areas below suggest that even if correction happens it may have a short living effect.

Below is the weekly chart of Nifty. That Hanging Man at the top is little worrisome. This hanging man is formed near the third top. Hence to neutralise this pattern Nifty need to convincingly close above 8968. Any close below 8973 in the coming week will add to the worries bulls. The supportive indicator is also overbought. Trading with caution should be the key for Bulls.

 

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Justdial - Head & Shoulder breakout

Justdial has been in down trend since Jan 2015. The stock has been continuously witnessing a fall and the stock is down by whooping 75%. This head and shoulder breakout can be a start of short term uptrend in the stock.

Ujjivan and ICICI Pru Life - Recent IPOs with an attractive proposition

Ujjivan  and ICICI Pru Life are the two IPOs launched in recent past. Both the stocks are looking lucrative now.

Lets go one by one:

Ujjivan has strongly surpassed its major resistance yesterday to close near 424. You can see on the chart below that that after posting high near 530 the stock has seen a healthy correction which took the stock to around 275. This was very near to its listing price of 230.

Here on we can expect the stock to continue the momentum.

ICICI Pru Life after its listing in Sep 2016, was trading in a broad range between 330 and 285. The stock has broken out of this range on 10th Jan. It then went up to post a new high of 363.50. The stock then went into a correction and tested its breakout level as shown on chart. We can expect the stock to continue to trade with same momentum.




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BHEL - Head & Shoulder breakout

Bhel was trading in a downtrend on daily chart since Sep 16. Stock was trying to get into a new cycle of higher top higher bottom from its existing downtrend. For short term, the current Head & Shoulder breakout can act as confirmation to this theory.

Petronet - Fresh Flag breakout

For about last 12 weeks this stocks was in consolidation phase. Consolidation is actually a period of contraction. We expect price to remain stagnant during contraction. Contraction periods are usually followed by expansion. Expansion means prices move in either direction. You can see below weekly chart of Petronet. A clear breakout of consolidation is an indication of start of expansion phase.

Divis Lab - grab the 50% discount offer

Divis Lab was trading near 1350 in Sep 16. The stock is available near 700 while writing this article. No one is willing to touch it even at this level. 

Lets try to understand whether Divis Lab is an attractive buy at this level.

Here is quarterly (Yes...one candle per quarter...though little long term, its worth discussing here) chart of Divis Lab

 

The stock is trading near a substantial support area. Biggies would want to buy at this level.

I am not saying the stock will start moving up right away from this level. The level might be tested couple of times. The stock may get into sideways trend for some time.

If you have patience and you are ready to wait for some ( a year or so) time there is an opportunity to earn 50% returns here.

Closer look:

If you look a little closer on the basis of daily and weekly chart, you will find that the chart structure is becoming flattish indicating slow and steady buying at current levels. The buying area is between 600 and 700. So may want to average between this price. 

You can look to book first profit near 900-930 and later near 1100-1150

Have your risk management in place and you have a nice trade ready to be served.

Weekly Chart:

Jubilant Foodworks - Low hanging fruit?

Monthly chart - trading near an attractive support

J K Paper - Ascending Triangle breakout

SAIL - change of cycle

Steel Authority of India, the steel giant, is seen in the process of changing its cycle from 'Lower Top Lower Bottom' to cycle of 'Higher Top Higher Bottom'

Trident - breaking to all time high

Both below are weekly charts to Trident. 

In first chart, larger picture exhibits the strength on chart.

A closer look in the second chart shows an ascending triangle breakout. 

What and how of Nifty before Budget

Larger Picture:
Here is larger picture of Nifty with the help of monthly chart. You can see that on monthly chart Nifty is taking repeated support on a trend line. This trend line traces back to March 2009. This trend line exhibits a strong support to Nifty in 8000-7900 range. On the monthly chart, last month Nifty has formed a bullish hammer. As a follow-up to this monthly hammer, Nifty is in process of creating a bullish green candle. This bullish green candle is yet to form completely. Larger trend is up.
There is a resistance to Nifty in 8500-8590 area. On this larger time frame Nifty is still not in the region which can be called as over bought. We can expect the uptrend to continue. Correction is a part of an uptrend and is also healthy for uptrend. One such correction can not be denied once Nifty reached its resistance.
Monthly chart:

Closer Picture:

Nifty on its Weekly chart is still not giving us symptoms which is an indication of a downside correction. However some pressure is seen, if you carefully observe daily chart, Nifty is trading in overbought zone and also has its resistance nearby. Major event of budget is schedules on 1 Feb. This event can have large impact on Nifty. Technically a fall in Nifty to its support near 8250 will be an opportunity to add to the positions, as the larger picture remains positive. 

Markets usually trades nervous before important event and takes the direction on the day of the event.

The arrows on weekly chart below exhibits important areas.

A picture still closer:

On daily chart one can see that Nifty has started experiencing some pressure. Nifty is also trading in overbought zone and has negative divergence. This is an indication of a correction. However the correction may not be substantial looking at the positive picture on larger time frame. However this is definitely not the time to go long. Wait patiently for the markets to correct and then enter. If you have profits in existing positions, current time may be the right time to book it. For me 8506 and 8255 are crucial levels. 

At Bonvista Equity Research we believe in simple ideas to make money in stocks. Right analysis with good money management and risk management is the key to earn profits in markets. To have look at our Premium Service visit our website Bonvista Equity Research.

NTPC - Breaking all recent hurdles

Zoomed Image on weekly scale

Larger Picture on weekly scale

Tata Communucation - Ready for a Flag Breakout

Tata Communication is trading in broad range since begining of November. An ascending triangle on weekly scale is formed with this 2 month long consolidation. Observe the activity in volumes this week. Possibility of a breakout?

Fortis - Rectangle breakout

Fortis is breaking out of 10 months long rectangle. Here is weekly chart of Fortis, though the weekly candle is not closed as the week is yet to complete. We can anticipate that it will close with the nice breakout.

ACC - a double top and now a double bottom

ACC monthly chart below. Looks attractive specially because of low risk.