Saturday, May 20, 2017

Correction on cards? - Nifty view Week starting 22 May 17

Corrections are healthy for markets to grow. 
A Hanging Man pattern (candle of 17 May) on daily chart as seen below was the first indication of a gap down. That gap down has come the next day (18 May) and markets fell by more than 90 points on Thursday. An attempt to recover on Friday got sold and markets ended in red off the low. These are early signs of corrections. However we can not predict the quantum of the correction.
As you can see on the chart below, there are 2 supports. One is at 9360 and next is immediately in the range of 9338 and 9297. These 2 are areas of hope for markets to turn up again.

Daily Chart of Nifty

On a little larger scale as seen on weekly chart below, the selling pressure is indicated by a Gravestone Doji formation. Yet there is no confirmation of a correction on weekly chart.
We have 9297 as crucial level. If this level breaks on closing basis the next week, we might assume the start of a substantial correction. If this happens the next major support is at 9000.

Nifty weekly chart

Saturday, April 29, 2017

Nifty breaks out of range - What next?

Last week we had mentioned about a range between 8970 and 9270. The Nifty was trading in this range. We had also mentioned that Nifty has to break out of this range on either side to get a clear direction. Nifty broke upper level of the range on 25th Apr. We can safely assume that Nifty is on its way to continue its journey Northwards, unless some bad news comes in.

What next?

Broadly Nifty is in bull run and is expected to continue with it. Every correction is a buying opportunity in Nifty. After breaking out of 9270, Nifty has corrected a bit to test the level again. We can assume Nifty to bounce again from this level.
If Nifty breaks below 9270, the next immediate support is near 9220.
Both these support levels are buying opportunities in Nifty.

Sunday, April 23, 2017

Nifty View for the week 24th Apr

Since last 2 weeks we have been saying that the Nifty is currently trading in a range (With negative bias). Lower end of the range is around 8990. On Friday Nifty managed to close above this level.
Higher end of this range is around 9270. Nifty need to break either of these level to give us a clear direction.

Since Nifty is trading near a small support within this range, which is near 9110, lets understand how one can trade Nifty now. My view is that if Nifty breaks below this level convincingly it can move further below till its next major support near 8990. This is lower end of the channel.

As Nifty is currently trading near a support, short term traders can look to buy Nifty for a bounce of 50-75 points from current level.

Broadly speaking neither bulls nor the bears are in charge of the markets. It seems like some time will be spent in the range mentioned above.


Monday, April 17, 2017

Nifty View - Markets may continue to consolidate

Last week we had hinted at possible correction in Nifty. Important levels given last week were 9160 and 9133. You can see from Nifty chart, that Nifty tried to move up a bit from support at 9160. The level finally broken. Currently Nifty is trading near our next support 9133. This support is a range from 9133-9110. I feel Nifty has good support at this level. Holding this level is important for bulls. Lets hope that some demand will be created at this level and help markets pull up.
If Nifty breaks below 9110 it may undergo substantial correction of another 75-100 points


Saturday, April 8, 2017

Nifty View - Wait for further long

Nifty View for the week starting 10 Apr 17-
On Friday Nifty fell by 63 points to close near 9197. This is one of the biggest fall in one day in recent past. 
We know that markets can not run one way. At upper levels you will experience profit booking. This profit booking will make markets move down. 
One such profit booking (Long Unwinding) is seen in Nifty at higher levels on Friday. I have explained this with the help of 60 min chart below. On 60 min chart you can see that Nifty broke below a good support near 9220. This can be start of down trend on 60 mins chart. There are 2 important supports near 9160 and 9133 apart from the current level at 9190. 


On a lager (Weekly) time frame a inverted hammer candle at the top is just an indication of Bulls Exhaustion. This is just indicating that the markets can remain in a range or see some selling pressure unless it breaks above 9273. Every dip in price will be buying opportunity, as the long term trend is very much up.

Monday, April 3, 2017

Breakout in Daawat (LT Foods)

A consolidation breakout in Daawat (LT Foods) is seen on daily chart. You can see that this breakout has come with good volumes. In the process it has formed a pattern called Flag Pattern. The target of Flag pattern is usually large.


Sunday, April 2, 2017

Expect 100% returns in Donear

After RAMKY (I had written a small post on RAMKY few days back) Donear is another stock which is forming a nice Rounding Bottom pattern on monthly chart. If the stock breaks and sustains above 78, it has potential to move up to much higher levels. the next resistance is near 160. 
This is might take few months- still worth doubling your money, say in a years time.


Nifty View for the week starting 3 Apr

Nifty view:
Financial year 16-17 is behind us. The day on 31st March was a month, week and day end for markets. Hence in this article lets understand broader (medium term) and closer (short term) view of Nifty.

Medium term:
You can see below monthly chart of Nifty. On monthly chart Nifty has formed a long upward sloping channel. On the close of March-2017 month Nifty has closed at its all time high breaking earlier resistance. We can expect this bull run to continue for next few months. Of-course there will be small corrections during this journey. If we are to believe above theory then Nifty can reach to its next resistance near upper sloping line. The target for this run comes near 10,200- 10,400.



Short Term:
On weekly chart a similar picture emerges. On each correction Nifty is a buy for higher targets.
On a very short scale Nifty has immediate support near 9110 and resistance near 9210. Rather Nifty is trading in this (9110-9210) range of 100 points. A breakout or breakdown beyond this level will make further picture clear. 

Thursday, March 23, 2017

Ramky Infrastrucure - Potential to double from current level

Ramky Infrastructure -
The stock has been trading in range for long period of 5 years. Stock has tried to break out of strong resistance near 89 in July 14 and July 16 but could not succeed. In the process the stock has formed pattern known as Rounding Bottom. A breakout of rounding bottom can give good targets.
You can see on the monthly chart below the stock has moved up with good volumes and currently trading near 106. This move has come up with huge volumes. The stock double from current level.



Wednesday, March 22, 2017

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Saturday, March 18, 2017

Nifty view for the week starting 20th March

For last 3-4 weeks we have been writing about the new bull run once Nifty closes beyond 8960.
The much awaited penetration of Nifty in the new uncharted territory has begun on 14 March after the election results of UP were declared.
On that day Nifty gaped up by almost 160 points. At the close of this week Nifty is trading near 9160.
We can safely assume that a new run of upward momentum has started in Nifty. How to trade this momentum can be debatable. This is because Nifty has gaped up and is still trading near all time high without the gap being filled up.
We can expect this gap to be filled up sooner or later. There is a good amount of open interest increase in Call Options for strike price of 9200. It means that call writers are not willing to let Nifty go beyond this point easily.
Be patient, let Nifty correct. It has good support near 8990. That would be good level to enter long positions.

Below is closer as well as a larger view of Nifty both on Weekly time frame-


Friday, March 17, 2017

Up Flag formation- Time Technoplast

Time Technoplast is a company manufacturing plastic products like Drums, Containers, Conipails, Petsheets etc.

This analysis below is on weekly chart. You can see that the stock was in consolidation phase since Sep 2016. This consolidation was in a broad range of 88 to 100. The consolidation has come after an expansion period which took the stock price from 49 to 100 in period of approximately 9 months.
We know that the periods of expansion are followed by consolidation and so on.
We can expect that the current period of consolidation is over and stock is ready for phase of expansion.


Wednesday, March 15, 2017

19% gains in BHEL - Inverted Head & Shoulder breakout

We had recommended BHEL on breaking out of Head and Shoulder pattern on 30 Jan 17. 

Today the stock is trading at 165. Thats a gain of 19% since we recommended the stock.

You can check the article which was written then below

Bhel was trading in a downtrend on daily chart since Sep 16. Stock was trying to get into a new cycle of higher top higher bottom from its existing downtrend. For short term, the current Head & Shoulder breakout can act as confirmation to this theory.


BPCL offering a discount when others are trading near highs

BPCL is trading near an attractive level. Current level is seen as a good support. Near this level the stock has also formed a double bottom-ish pattern which makes us believe that it is willing to gain momentum here on.


Saturday, March 4, 2017

Reliance Industries- beginning of a new journey

On December 27 we had anticipated a breakout in Reliance Industries long term chart.& years long consolidation finally broke and Reliance Industries has begin its new journey.

Have also reproduced the same article at the end of this post for your reference.

Here is latest monthly chart of Reliance Industries.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Read below old article dated 27 Dec 17

Reliance Industries Ascending Triangle

Reliance Industries
A frustrating consolidation continues in this large cap. This consolidation is referred to as Ascending Triangle. A breakout is expected after the consolidation. This time since this is an ascending triangle the breakout can be on upper side of the price. 



27.8% gains in Justdial within a month

We had spotted Head and Shoulder Breakout in Justdial on 10 Feb 17 when it was trading at 427.

The stock is trading at 546 on 3rd March 2017 with total gains of 27.8%

You can check earlier article here - Justdial - Head & Shoulder breakout

Reproducing the article below for your reference:

Justdial - Head & Shoulder breakout

Justdial has been in down trend since Jan 2015. The stock has been continuously witnessing a fall and the stock is down by whooping 75%. This head and shoulder breakout can be a start of short term uptrend in the stock.

20% gains in Jubilant Foodworks

Had recommended Jubilant Foodworks on 18 Jan 17.
The stock has closed on 1056 on week ended 3 March 2017
The stock has gained 19.8% since then.

Below is the link of my post on 18 Jan 17
Click here to read old article

Here is that article reproduced for you.
Jubilant Foodworks - Low hanging fruit?
Monthly chart - trading near an attractive support

Monday, February 27, 2017

Nifty view for the week starting 27 Feb

If you go by last week's comment, I had said Nifty need to closed above 8960, which is previous high, for it to start new bull run. Nifty is still struggling to close beyond this point.
Detailed view with levels is available to our premium subscribers.


Tuesday, February 21, 2017

TCS- Changing the trend

Markets / Stocks runs in cycles-
For an early entry you need to identify a change in the cycle (trend). 
In this case TCS was so far trading in sideways trend. With a breakout in last 3-4 days there is an evidence that there is a probable change of trend in TCS. So the new trend is an uptrend.
TCS daily chart below-



Saturday, February 11, 2017

Nifty - Trading with strength but deserves a rest

Most of the important events are past us. The good thing about these events was that they have let India VIX move hardly. This shows the maturity on part of market participants as well as on part of government. The Union Budget and RBI policy were instrumental in not creating hype of these events. They seem to be well focused on essentials as compared to their predecessors. Yes, I mean it.

Lets see how Nifty looks like on Technical charts. 
Below is the daily chart of Nifty. Notice the narrow channel in which Nifty is trading. This channel Nifty is trading at the stretched levels near higher end of the channel. Last 3 days repeated hanging men, however are suggesting that the bulls are exhausted for the time being. As a trader I would wi


sh to enter at the cheaper levels than this. The support areas below suggest that even if correction happens it may have a short living effect.



Below is the weekly chart of Nifty. That Hanging Man at the top is little worrisome. This hanging man is formed near the third top. Hence to neutralise this pattern Nifty need to convincingly close above 8968. Any close below 8973 in the coming week will add to the worries bulls. The supportive indicator is also overbought. Trading with caution should be the key for Bulls.
 


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Friday, February 10, 2017

Justdial - Head & Shoulder breakout

Justdial has been in down trend since Jan 2015. The stock has been continuously witnessing a fall and the stock is down by whooping 75%. This head and shoulder breakout can be a start of short term uptrend in the stock.


Friday, February 3, 2017

Ujjivan and ICICI Pru Life - Recent IPOs with an attractive proposition

Ujjivan  and ICICI Pru Life are the two IPOs launched in recent past. Both the stocks are looking lucrative now.

Lets go one by one:
Ujjivan has strongly surpassed its major resistance yesterday to close near 424. You can see on the chart below that that after posting high near 530 the stock has seen a healthy correction which took the stock to around 275. This was very near to its listing price of 230.
Here on we can expect the stock to continue the momentum.
ICICI Pru Life after its listing in Sep 2016, was trading in a broad range between 330 and 285. The stock has broken out of this range on 10th Jan. It then went up to post a new high of 363.50. The stock then went into a correction and tested its breakout level as shown on chart. We can expect the stock to continue to trade with same momentum.




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Monday, January 30, 2017

BHEL - Head & Shoulder breakout

Bhel was trading in a downtrend on daily chart since Sep 16. Stock was trying to get into a new cycle of higher top higher bottom from its existing downtrend. For short term, the current Head & Shoulder breakout can act as confirmation to this theory.


Sunday, January 29, 2017

Petronet - Fresh Flag breakout

For about last 12 weeks this stocks was in consolidation phase. Consolidation is actually a period of contraction. We expect price to remain stagnant during contraction. Contraction periods are usually followed by expansion. Expansion means prices move in either direction. You can see below weekly chart of Petronet. A clear breakout of consolidation is an indication of start of expansion phase.


Friday, January 27, 2017

Divis Lab - grab the 50% discount offer

Divis Lab was trading near 1350 in Sep 16. The stock is available near 700 while writing this article. No one is willing to touch it even at this level. 
Lets try to understand whether Divis Lab is an attractive buy at this level.

Here is quarterly (Yes...one candle per quarter...though little long term, its worth discussing here) chart of Divis Lab
 
The stock is trading near a substantial support area. Biggies would want to buy at this level.
I am not saying the stock will start moving up right away from this level. The level might be tested couple of times. The stock may get into sideways trend for some time.
If you have patience and you are ready to wait for some ( a year or so) time there is an opportunity to earn 50% returns here.

Closer look:
If you look a little closer on the basis of daily and weekly chart, you will find that the chart structure is becoming flattish indicating slow and steady buying at current levels. The buying area is between 600 and 700. So may want to average between this price. 
You can look to book first profit near 900-930 and later near 1100-1150
Have your risk management in place and you have a nice trade ready to be served.

Weekly Chart:

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

SAIL - change of cycle

Steel Authority of India, the steel giant, is seen in the process of changing its cycle from 'Lower Top Lower Bottom' to cycle of 'Higher Top Higher Bottom'



Monday, January 16, 2017

Trident - breaking to all time high

Both below are weekly charts to Trident. 
In first chart, larger picture exhibits the strength on chart.



A closer look in the second chart shows an ascending triangle breakout. 



Sunday, January 15, 2017

What and how of Nifty before Budget

Larger Picture:
Here is larger picture of Nifty with the help of monthly chart. You can see that on monthly chart Nifty is taking repeated support on a trend line. This trend line traces back to March 2009. This trend line exhibits a strong support to Nifty in 8000-7900 range. On the monthly chart, last month Nifty has formed a bullish hammer. As a follow-up to this monthly hammer, Nifty is in process of creating a bullish green candle. This bullish green candle is yet to form completely. Larger trend is up.
There is a resistance to Nifty in 8500-8590 area. On this larger time frame Nifty is still not in the region which can be called as over bought. We can expect the uptrend to continue. Correction is a part of an uptrend and is also healthy for uptrend. One such correction can not be denied once Nifty reached its resistance.
Monthly chart:

Closer Picture:
Nifty on its Weekly chart is still not giving us symptoms which is an indication of a downside correction. However some pressure is seen, if you carefully observe daily chart, Nifty is trading in overbought zone and also has its resistance nearby. Major event of budget is schedules on 1 Feb. This event can have large impact on Nifty. Technically a fall in Nifty to its support near 8250 will be an opportunity to add to the positions, as the larger picture remains positive. 
Markets usually trades nervous before important event and takes the direction on the day of the event.
The arrows on weekly chart below exhibits important areas.

A picture still closer:
On daily chart one can see that Nifty has started experiencing some pressure. Nifty is also trading in overbought zone and has negative divergence. This is an indication of a correction. However the correction may not be substantial looking at the positive picture on larger time frame. However this is definitely not the time to go long. Wait patiently for the markets to correct and then enter. If you have profits in existing positions, current time may be the right time to book it. For me 8506 and 8255 are crucial levels. 


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Friday, January 13, 2017

Thursday, January 12, 2017

Tata Communucation - Ready for a Flag Breakout

Tata Communication is trading in broad range since begining of November. An ascending triangle on weekly scale is formed with this 2 month long consolidation. Observe the activity in volumes this week. Possibility of a breakout?

Monday, January 9, 2017

Fortis - Rectangle breakout

Fortis is breaking out of 10 months long rectangle. Here is weekly chart of Fortis, though the weekly candle is not closed as the week is yet to complete. We can anticipate that it will close with the nice breakout.


Sunday, January 8, 2017

ACC - a double top and now a double bottom

ACC monthly chart below. Looks attractive specially because of low risk.



SRF - obeying the support

SRF Weekly chart. This is a classic pattern. A rectangle breakout is being tested. Expect a rise in demand here.


Havells - On a bouncing spree after a nice Correction

Ready to spell a new move after a nice correction. Weekly time frame.



Asian Paints - not yet late

This post can also be treated as a followup post to my earlier post - 
Asian Paint is one of the stocks I had recommended at that time. Check its recent reaction on the chart below. 


Sriram Transport Finance - Buy Cheap

 At current levels Sriram Transport Finance is available at a discount of a 40%.
Strong support area and price till next price hurdle has lot to offer. Weekly time frame here.