Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Nifty breaks Head & Shoulder Neckline

After long I am writing on Nifty. There is a reason to do so - Nifty breaks medium term up-trend.
Nifty breaks below trend line as well as Head & Shoulder neckline.
As you can see in the daily chart below, the breakdown has come about with good volumes. Bears have a clear edge over bulls.
What can be done now-
Nifty is approaching the next support between 10100-10040. So it would not be wise to short at this moment. One can expect a bounce from the support. If the bounce comes about, Nifty can move up to its resistance near 10300-10350.

With this movement, we can assume that Nifty is in medium-term downtrend.
The same is also confirmed by the cycle change from 'higher top higher bottom' to a new cycle of 'lower top lower bottom'. The new cycle of lower top lower bottom is expected to continue for some time now.
If Nifty breaks below 10040, next major support is near 9750.

For more on medium-term safe investing using Technical Charts visit
www.bonvista.in



Chart curtsy- Sharekhan Trade Tiger

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Bharti Airtel - Long Triangle breakout

Bharti Airtel- Long Analysis

Bharti Airtel is a second giant experiencing a similar breakout after a triangle consolidation for pretty long period. The earlier breakout was by Reliance Industries around a year back. I had written a post during the breakout phase on Dec 27, 2016, in Reliance Industries. Reliance Industries doubled since then. Below is the link of that post-
Reliance Industries Ascending Triangle

First picture below is a Quarterly Candlestick chart. I love using Monthly and quarterly charts. They give a clear picture at a larger scale. Once we get this helicopter view, we understand what is happening and what can be expected in the times to come.
You can see below that the stock has formed a long triangle beginning in Jan 2007 and since then was trading in the consolidation till Sep 2017. Since the period is too long and the chart we are considering here is a quarterly chart, the low and high of the consolidation too is large. The base of this consolidation is around 260 and the top is around 500.
The triangle went narrow during the quarter ended Sep 17. Finally the stock broke out of the consolidation in Oct 17. You can see on the chart when the quarter in ended Dec 17 formed, a huge green candle supported by increased volumes.
I have also produced a Line Chart below to understand the picture more clearly.

Current markets pressures have brought the stock back to its breakout levels of around 425, where the stock is currently trading.




The stock after breaking out has corrected to test the level of breakout, as it usually happens in most breakout examples. This is an entry opportunity.
I have produced a weekly chart below which is showing the origin of breakout and how it is currently trading near the same level after a fall of around 20%. This fall brought the stock back to its support near 424 which also the origin of the breakout.
We have experienced that this is an opportunity to accumulate the stock. 
This zone is between 424 to low of around 380. If the stock fails to sustain above 380, we may consider failure of the pattern. Remember that the patterns can fail, not usually though.

The stock has a potential to move from this level and the gains can be handsome. Though we can not predict the targets we believe that the stock can achieve first possible level of 530 and then 650 and then 840. 


Chart Credits: Sharekhan Trade Tiger


Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up. 

Friday, January 12, 2018

Learnings of 2017 - 'Musts' being an Equity Investor

  • Believe in your 'theory'
  • Do simple things, simple analysis
  • Do 'short term trading', if you have qualities of a 'Sky Diver'
  • Method of analysis is last thing, first is approach
  • Choose your investing time frame
  • You are different than others, so is your investing style
  • If you rely on someone else's analysis, do so wholeheartedly
  • Reduce the sources of information


  • Invest in business, if you are a long term investor
  • Trade on price, if you are a relatively short term (may be up to one year) trader
  • Fundamental analysis is good, but very few understands it
  • Technical analysis is good, but very few can implement it
  • If you are not making money in markets, take a break, learn
  • If you are loosing money in markets, take a larger break, learn
  • If you are new, don't start with intraday / Options / Futures
  • It takes time to learn making money in markets, period can be upto 5 years
  • Stay away from free tips
  • Do not try to cross check one's recommendations with some one else, if you believe act, else leave 

Tuesday, January 9, 2018

Update - Intellect Design Arena - Change in Trend

We had analysed Intellect on 6th November 17. The change in trend has nicely panned out so far. The stock has moved from 147 then to 183 so far. Keep watching for further updates.
Below is the article reproduced for your reference.

Intellect Design Arena - Change in trend

Intellect Design Arena (INTELLECT)
Short Analysis-
The stock has been correcting since last about 10 months. The quantum of the fall is about 65% from its top. The stock has good support near level of 97-110. This support was created when the stock had given a breakout in July 2015.
In Aug 17 the stock reached back to the same level of around 97-100. You can see the trend line marked on daily and weekly chart. This trend line was acting as resistance and was not allowing the stock to move beyond. During the week ended 15 Sep 17 the stock broken out this resistance. That was first symptom that the stock can change its trend from down to up. During last week (Ended on 3 Nov 17) you can see increase in volumes and bullish candles formation on chart.
Expect the stock to continue this uptrend. 


Daily Time Frame

Sunday, January 7, 2018

Sudarshan Chemical - Flag Breakout

Sudarshan Chemical-
This stock has seen run up from 134 to 454 during June 16 to Sep 16. This phase has formed pole of the Flag pattern. After this run up the stock went into consolidation between Sep 16 till Dec 17. This phase has formed Flag portion of the Flag pattern. You can seen on the monthly Candle chart below the Flag marked on the chart.
On 4th Jan 18 the stock has broken out of the Flag consolidation. On monthly chart the the stock is seen forming a nice bookish pattern showing a breakout of of Flag pattern. Only catch here is that the monthly candle is yet not finished as its the candle of Jan 18 and Jan 18 will be over only on 31st Jan.
The pattern gives us a target of 660. Lets hope that the stock reaches this level. Time period expected for stock to reach this level is 5-6 months.


Friday, December 29, 2017

Update - Up Flag formation- Time Technoplast

Time Technoplast had an up Flag formation on 17 March 17. I have reproduced below the article of analysis done on 17 March. The up Flag formation in Time Technoplast has made the stock move from the then price of 116.45 to 208.9 today. That's a gain of 79% from the recommended price of 116. Keep reading this blog for more such analysis. 

My analysis is based on simple thought process. As all of us know that one has to have patience in stock markets, so is the case here as well. However, my thrust is on taking minimum risk. A CAGR of 40%-50% is what I look forward to. I thrive to have stocks in my watchlist and pick them up when I feel they are ready for an up-move.

Below is the article written on 17 March 2017 on Time Technoplast

Up Flag formation- Time Technoplast

Time Technoplast is a company manufacturing plastic products like Drums, Containers, Conipails, Petsheets etc.

This analysis below is on weekly chart. You can see that the stock was in consolidation phase since Sep 2016. This consolidation was in a broad range of 88 to 100. The consolidation has come after an expansion period which took the stock price from 49 to 100 in period of approximately 9 months.
We know that the periods of expansion are followed by consolidation and so on.
We can expect that the current period of consolidation is over and stock is ready for phase of expansion.


Thursday, December 21, 2017

Update - Wockhardt Pharma - Accumulation in progress?

You might recollect analysis of Wockhardt Pharma on October 9, 2017.
 The accumulation is usually followed by a sharp rise in price, as was mentioned in the analysis.

The stock is currently trading near 880. On Oct 9, at the time I wrote this analysis, the stock was trading near 635. Enjoy the gains.

Reproduced below is the article on Wockhardt Pharma written on Oct 9, 2017

Wockhardt Pharma - Accumulation in progress?

Wockhardt Pharma - Short Analysis

Wockhardt Pharma fall from its high in Apr 2015 is almost 80%. That took the stock to an attractive buying price with an 80% discount. Currently stock is trading near 635. Many would want to accumulate this share at current price. This is precisely what is seen on the chart. After a mega fall there is a consolidation on chart. This consolidation might be due to steady buying at currently levels. This buying may take the stock to higher levels.
The next hurdle is at around 830. If the stocks breaks this hurdle successfully, the next one is around 1250.  This might take couple of years.
I would trade this stock with a loss exit of around 540.

Sunday, December 17, 2017

Ajanta Pharma - Bulls in action

Ajanta Pharma Ltd.

Briefly, Fundamentals about the company-
Company is in manufacturing drugs.
Company has almost zero debt.
Stock is now trading at a PE of 27.
Company has been consistently making profits and the profit growth is 49%

Technical Analysis-
The first chart below is a daily chart showing the chart area between Aug 2014 till date.
You can see a horizontal line marked on the chart. This line acts as a support. This also means that buying was expected to start near support. Rightly so the stock bounce up from the level of 1130.

The second chart below is also a daily chart showing a closer picture. We know that stock moves in repeated cycles of downtrend, sideways trend and uptrend. Once the uptrend starts it is expected to continue for some period of time.
You can see similar Cycle of LTLB (downtrend represented by Lower Top Lower Bottom) followed by a Sideways Cycle and then beginning of Cycle of HTHB (uptrend represented by Higher Top Higher Bottom).
A breakout on 20 Nov and 8 Dec are confirming the start of upward trend.
This is also confirmed by the improved volumes on chart.

Last chart below is a monthly chart. The stock has fallen from around 2120 to level of 1130. This is almost 50% fall from its top. We can assume that the correction cycle of Ajanta pharma is now over and the uptrend started may continue for substantial period to come.
When I wrote this article, the stock was trading near 1445. If one starts accumulating the stock at current  level and wait for period of 1-2 years can reap returns of 70-80% on amount invested. 




Opportunities in Dwarikesh Sugar

Dwarikesh Sugar - Short Analysis

We have seen a lackluster performance from sugar sector in recent past. At least currently it is not moving the way it was during June 17 to Oct 17.
The sector as a whole and the stock (Dwarikesh) corrected substantially in last 2 months.
Question is whether the opportunities are over in this stock or we should treat this correction as entry opportunity.
You can see the weekly chart of Dwarikesh Sugar below. On this chart you can see that the stock is falling ( correcting) since beginning of Nov 17 when it was trading around 79. It is still not giving the symptoms of recovery. Now the stock is trading near 53. This is a fall of more than 30% from the high.
You can see a range named 'Accumulation Zone' marked on chart. This range is a support area. One can expect buying to start in this zone. One can start buying Dwarikesh Sugar when it trades between 48 and 39.
Place the stop just below 39 and exit, if it falls below it.
The stock can see an upside of more than 40% from the recommended buying level.



Monday, November 6, 2017

Intellect Design Arena - Change in trend

Intellect Design Arena (INTELLECT)
Short Analysis-
The stock has been correcting since last about 10 months. The quantum of the fall is about 65% from its top. The stock has good support near level of 97-110. This support was created when the stock had given a breakout in July 2015.
In Aug 17 the stock reached back to the same level of around 97-100. You can see the trend line marked on daily and weekly chart. This trend line was acting as resistance and was not allowing the stock to move beyond. During the week ended 15 Sep 17 the stock broken out this resistance. That was first symptom that the stock can change its trend from down to up. During last week (Ended on 3 Nov 17) you can see increase in volumes and bullish candles formation on chart.
Expect the stock to continue this uptrend. 


Daily Time Frame

Weekly Time Frame







Ramky Infrastructure - 75.6% in 7 months and counting

On March 23 we had identified this stock. The stock, at that time was trading at 106. The breakout so identified took the stock to 186. While writing this article the stock is about to reach its next resistance. 

Happy Investing

I have reproduced the same article below-

Ramky Infrastrucure - Potential to double from current level

Ramky Infrastructure -
The stock has been trading in range for long period of 5 years. Stock has tried to break out of strong resistance near 89 in July 14 and July 16 but could not succeed. In the process the stock has formed pattern known as Rounding Bottom. A breakout of rounding bottom can give good targets.
You can see on the monthly chart below the stock has moved up with good volumes and currently trading near 106. This move has come up with huge volumes. The stock can double from current level in an year or so.



Monday, October 9, 2017

Wockhardt Pharma - Accumulation in progress?

Wockhardt Pharma - Short Analysis

Wockhardt Pharma fall from its high in Apr 2015 is almost 80%. That took the stock to an attractive buying price with an 80% discount. Currently stock is trading near 635. Many would want to accumulate this share at current price. This is precisely what is seen on the chart. After a mega fall there is a consolidation on chart. This consolidation might be due to steady buying at currently levels. This buying may take the stock to higher levels.
The next hurdle is at around 830. If the stocks breaks this hurdle successfully, the next one is around 1250.  This might take couple of years.
I would trade this stock with a loss exit of around 540.



Saturday, September 16, 2017

40% upside from current levels - Deep Industries

Analysis of Deep Industries -
Here is monthly chart of Deep Industries. The stock has retraced 61% from its top. Now it is trading near a support. The stock can move up by 40-50% from current levels. Level of around 190 can be exit level in loss and around 300-310 can be exit level in profits. 



Disclaimer: This blog is an informational blog. The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. Articles written here are purely educational in nature and not an investment or trading advise. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI Registered Analyst or Investment Adviser or a Research Analyst. Readers are advised to consult their Investment Adviser before taking any decisions based on above write-up.  

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Correction on cards? - Nifty view Week starting 22 May 17

Corrections are healthy for markets to grow. 
A Hanging Man pattern (candle of 17 May) on daily chart as seen below was the first indication of a gap down. That gap down has come the next day (18 May) and markets fell by more than 90 points on Thursday. An attempt to recover on Friday got sold and markets ended in red off the low. These are early signs of corrections. However we can not predict the quantum of the correction.
As you can see on the chart below, there are 2 supports. One is at 9360 and next is immediately in the range of 9338 and 9297. These 2 are areas of hope for markets to turn up again.

Daily Chart of Nifty

On a little larger scale as seen on weekly chart below, the selling pressure is indicated by a Gravestone Doji formation. Yet there is no confirmation of a correction on weekly chart.
We have 9297 as crucial level. If this level breaks on closing basis the next week, we might assume the start of a substantial correction. If this happens the next major support is at 9000.

Nifty weekly chart

Saturday, April 29, 2017

Nifty breaks out of range - What next?

Last week we had mentioned about a range between 8970 and 9270. The Nifty was trading in this range. We had also mentioned that Nifty has to break out of this range on either side to get a clear direction. Nifty broke upper level of the range on 25th Apr. We can safely assume that Nifty is on its way to continue its journey Northwards, unless some bad news comes in.

What next?

Broadly Nifty is in bull run and is expected to continue with it. Every correction is a buying opportunity in Nifty. After breaking out of 9270, Nifty has corrected a bit to test the level again. We can assume Nifty to bounce again from this level.
If Nifty breaks below 9270, the next immediate support is near 9220.
Both these support levels are buying opportunities in Nifty.

Sunday, April 23, 2017

Nifty View for the week 24th Apr

Since last 2 weeks we have been saying that the Nifty is currently trading in a range (With negative bias). Lower end of the range is around 8990. On Friday Nifty managed to close above this level.
Higher end of this range is around 9270. Nifty need to break either of these level to give us a clear direction.

Since Nifty is trading near a small support within this range, which is near 9110, lets understand how one can trade Nifty now. My view is that if Nifty breaks below this level convincingly it can move further below till its next major support near 8990. This is lower end of the channel.

As Nifty is currently trading near a support, short term traders can look to buy Nifty for a bounce of 50-75 points from current level.

Broadly speaking neither bulls nor the bears are in charge of the markets. It seems like some time will be spent in the range mentioned above.


Monday, April 17, 2017

Nifty View - Markets may continue to consolidate

Last week we had hinted at possible correction in Nifty. Important levels given last week were 9160 and 9133. You can see from Nifty chart, that Nifty tried to move up a bit from support at 9160. The level finally broken. Currently Nifty is trading near our next support 9133. This support is a range from 9133-9110. I feel Nifty has good support at this level. Holding this level is important for bulls. Lets hope that some demand will be created at this level and help markets pull up.
If Nifty breaks below 9110 it may undergo substantial correction of another 75-100 points


Saturday, April 8, 2017

Nifty View - Wait for further long

Nifty View for the week starting 10 Apr 17-
On Friday Nifty fell by 63 points to close near 9197. This is one of the biggest fall in one day in recent past. 
We know that markets can not run one way. At upper levels you will experience profit booking. This profit booking will make markets move down. 
One such profit booking (Long Unwinding) is seen in Nifty at higher levels on Friday. I have explained this with the help of 60 min chart below. On 60 min chart you can see that Nifty broke below a good support near 9220. This can be start of down trend on 60 mins chart. There are 2 important supports near 9160 and 9133 apart from the current level at 9190. 


On a lager (Weekly) time frame a inverted hammer candle at the top is just an indication of Bulls Exhaustion. This is just indicating that the markets can remain in a range or see some selling pressure unless it breaks above 9273. Every dip in price will be buying opportunity, as the long term trend is very much up.

Monday, April 3, 2017

Breakout in Daawat (LT Foods)

A consolidation breakout in Daawat (LT Foods) is seen on daily chart. You can see that this breakout has come with good volumes. In the process it has formed a pattern called Flag Pattern. The target of Flag pattern is usually large.


Sunday, April 2, 2017

Expect 100% returns in Donear

After RAMKY (I had written a small post on RAMKY few days back) Donear is another stock which is forming a nice Rounding Bottom pattern on monthly chart. If the stock breaks and sustains above 78, it has potential to move up to much higher levels. the next resistance is near 160. 
This is might take few months- still worth doubling your money, say in a years time.


Nifty View for the week starting 3 Apr

Nifty view:
Financial year 16-17 is behind us. The day on 31st March was a month, week and day end for markets. Hence in this article lets understand broader (medium term) and closer (short term) view of Nifty.

Medium term:
You can see below monthly chart of Nifty. On monthly chart Nifty has formed a long upward sloping channel. On the close of March-2017 month Nifty has closed at its all time high breaking earlier resistance. We can expect this bull run to continue for next few months. Of-course there will be small corrections during this journey. If we are to believe above theory then Nifty can reach to its next resistance near upper sloping line. The target for this run comes near 10,200- 10,400.



Short Term:
On weekly chart a similar picture emerges. On each correction Nifty is a buy for higher targets.
On a very short scale Nifty has immediate support near 9110 and resistance near 9210. Rather Nifty is trading in this (9110-9210) range of 100 points. A breakout or breakdown beyond this level will make further picture clear. 

Thursday, March 23, 2017

Ramky Infrastrucure - Potential to double from current level

Ramky Infrastructure -
The stock has been trading in range for long period of 5 years. Stock has tried to break out of strong resistance near 89 in July 14 and July 16 but could not succeed. In the process the stock has formed pattern known as Rounding Bottom. A breakout of rounding bottom can give good targets.
You can see on the monthly chart below the stock has moved up with good volumes and currently trading near 106. This move has come up with huge volumes. The stock can double from current level in an year or so.



Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Training on Equity Analysis using Technical Charts

We are conducting a 2 day off-line training on Equity Analysis using Technical Charts. 

This is for investors / trades who wish to learn Classical Charting techniques.

The training will be conducted on 15 and 16 April. 10 am to 5.30 pm

                                Click here for more details.

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Nifty view for the week starting 20th March

For last 3-4 weeks we have been writing about the new bull run once Nifty closes beyond 8960.
The much awaited penetration of Nifty in the new uncharted territory has begun on 14 March after the election results of UP were declared.
On that day Nifty gaped up by almost 160 points. At the close of this week Nifty is trading near 9160.
We can safely assume that a new run of upward momentum has started in Nifty. How to trade this momentum can be debatable. This is because Nifty has gaped up and is still trading near all time high without the gap being filled up.
We can expect this gap to be filled up sooner or later. There is a good amount of open interest increase in Call Options for strike price of 9200. It means that call writers are not willing to let Nifty go beyond this point easily.
Be patient, let Nifty correct. It has good support near 8990. That would be good level to enter long positions.

Below is closer as well as a larger view of Nifty both on Weekly time frame-


Friday, March 17, 2017

Up Flag formation- Time Technoplast

Time Technoplast is a company manufacturing plastic products like Drums, Containers, Conipails, Petsheets etc.

This analysis below is on weekly chart. You can see that the stock was in consolidation phase since Sep 2016. This consolidation was in a broad range of 88 to 100. The consolidation has come after an expansion period which took the stock price from 49 to 100 in period of approximately 9 months.
We know that the periods of expansion are followed by consolidation and so on.
We can expect that the current period of consolidation is over and stock is ready for phase of expansion.