Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Nifty breaks Head & Shoulder Neckline

After long I am writing on Nifty. There is a reason to do so - Nifty breaks medium term up-trend.
Nifty breaks below trend line as well as Head & Shoulder neckline.
As you can see in the daily chart below, the breakdown has come about with good volumes. Bears have a clear edge over bulls.
What can be done now-
Nifty is approaching the next support between 10100-10040. So it would not be wise to short at this moment. One can expect a bounce from the support. If the bounce comes about, Nifty can move up to its resistance near 10300-10350.

With this movement, we can assume that Nifty is in medium-term downtrend.
The same is also confirmed by the cycle change from 'higher top higher bottom' to a new cycle of 'lower top lower bottom'. The new cycle of lower top lower bottom is expected to continue for some time now.
If Nifty breaks below 10040, next major support is near 9750.

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Chart curtsy- Sharekhan Trade Tiger

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Bharti Airtel - Long Triangle breakout

Bharti Airtel- Long Analysis

Bharti Airtel is a second giant experiencing a similar breakout after a triangle consolidation for pretty long period. The earlier breakout was by Reliance Industries around a year back. I had written a post during the breakout phase on Dec 27, 2016, in Reliance Industries. Reliance Industries doubled since then. Below is the link of that post-
Reliance Industries Ascending Triangle

First picture below is a Quarterly Candlestick chart. I love using Monthly and quarterly charts. They give a clear picture at a larger scale. Once we get this helicopter view, we understand what is happening and what can be expected in the times to come.
You can see below that the stock has formed a long triangle beginning in Jan 2007 and since then was trading in the consolidation till Sep 2017. Since the period is too long and the chart we are considering here is a quarterly chart, the low and high of the consolidation too is large. The base of this consolidation is around 260 and the top is around 500.
The triangle went narrow during the quarter ended Sep 17. Finally the stock broke out of the consolidation in Oct 17. You can see on the chart when the quarter in ended Dec 17 formed, a huge green candle supported by increased volumes.
I have also produced a Line Chart below to understand the picture more clearly.

Current markets pressures have brought the stock back to its breakout levels of around 425, where the stock is currently trading.




The stock after breaking out has corrected to test the level of breakout, as it usually happens in most breakout examples. This is an entry opportunity.
I have produced a weekly chart below which is showing the origin of breakout and how it is currently trading near the same level after a fall of around 20%. This fall brought the stock back to its support near 424 which also the origin of the breakout.
We have experienced that this is an opportunity to accumulate the stock. 
This zone is between 424 to low of around 380. If the stock fails to sustain above 380, we may consider failure of the pattern. Remember that the patterns can fail, not usually though.

The stock has a potential to move from this level and the gains can be handsome. Though we can not predict the targets we believe that the stock can achieve first possible level of 530 and then 650 and then 840. 


Chart Credits: Sharekhan Trade Tiger


Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up. 

Friday, January 12, 2018

Learnings of 2017 - 'Musts' being an Equity Investor

  • Believe in your 'theory'
  • Do simple things, simple analysis
  • Do 'short term trading', if you have qualities of a 'Sky Diver'
  • Method of analysis is last thing, first is approach
  • Choose your investing time frame
  • You are different than others, so is your investing style
  • If you rely on someone else's analysis, do so wholeheartedly
  • Reduce the sources of information


  • Invest in business, if you are a long term investor
  • Trade on price, if you are a relatively short term (may be up to one year) trader
  • Fundamental analysis is good, but very few understands it
  • Technical analysis is good, but very few can implement it
  • If you are not making money in markets, take a break, learn
  • If you are loosing money in markets, take a larger break, learn
  • If you are new, don't start with intraday / Options / Futures
  • It takes time to learn making money in markets, period can be upto 5 years
  • Stay away from free tips
  • Do not try to cross check one's recommendations with some one else, if you believe act, else leave 

Tuesday, January 9, 2018

Update - Intellect Design Arena - Change in Trend

We had analysed Intellect on 6th November 17. The change in trend has nicely panned out so far. The stock has moved from 147 then to 183 so far. Keep watching for further updates.
Below is the article reproduced for your reference.

Intellect Design Arena - Change in trend

Intellect Design Arena (INTELLECT)
Short Analysis-
The stock has been correcting since last about 10 months. The quantum of the fall is about 65% from its top. The stock has good support near level of 97-110. This support was created when the stock had given a breakout in July 2015.
In Aug 17 the stock reached back to the same level of around 97-100. You can see the trend line marked on daily and weekly chart. This trend line was acting as resistance and was not allowing the stock to move beyond. During the week ended 15 Sep 17 the stock broken out this resistance. That was first symptom that the stock can change its trend from down to up. During last week (Ended on 3 Nov 17) you can see increase in volumes and bullish candles formation on chart.
Expect the stock to continue this uptrend. 


Daily Time Frame

Sunday, January 7, 2018

Sudarshan Chemical - Flag Breakout

Sudarshan Chemical-
This stock has seen run up from 134 to 454 during June 16 to Sep 16. This phase has formed pole of the Flag pattern. After this run up the stock went into consolidation between Sep 16 till Dec 17. This phase has formed Flag portion of the Flag pattern. You can seen on the monthly Candle chart below the Flag marked on the chart.
On 4th Jan 18 the stock has broken out of the Flag consolidation. On monthly chart the the stock is seen forming a nice bookish pattern showing a breakout of of Flag pattern. Only catch here is that the monthly candle is yet not finished as its the candle of Jan 18 and Jan 18 will be over only on 31st Jan.
The pattern gives us a target of 660. Lets hope that the stock reaches this level. Time period expected for stock to reach this level is 5-6 months.