32% so far - Quick update to article on Gabriel written on 29 March 16

I had written an article on Gabriel on 29th March this year. The article was on anticipated breakout in Gabriel.

You can read that article here:

Stock Analysis- Gabriel India Lts.- Breakout of consolidation can double the price

Current update on Gabriel:

Gabriel has broken out the consolidation. The move which I was anticipating has come about, though a little late. 

Markets will test your patience. Situations will make you panic. You need to be persistent. There is no alternative if you wish to have winning trades.

This is how the stock looks on chart after it has broken out of consolidation. Currently trading near 119. It was near 90 when article was written. Lets expect the move to continue to achieve our targets.

That is a move of around 32% in 4 and half months. However it has a large potential yet to conquer.

Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisory before taking any decisions based on above write-up.

Inverted Head & Shoulder in CIPLA

Last week Cipla has moved up over 9%. This move has come after a good 'basing' near its monthly support at 460-470 levels.

You may recollect my view through an article on Pharma sector and a short analysis of Cipla in the same article. The anticipated 15% move which I was expecting has come about in most pharma stocks since then. Cipla has also moved by around 12% since then. 

You can read that article here.

Here is further analysis on Cipla.

On weekly chart you can see that stock, after 'basing' near support at 460-470 levels, now crossed the hurdle at 540 last week. The weekly breakout has come with good volumes too. Overall structure has formed an inverted Head & Shoulder pattern on weekly chart. 

We need to understand here that the inverted H&S is nothing but an indication of cycle change from 'Lower Top Lower Bottom' to 'Higher Top Higher Bottom'. In my course on Technical Analysis for Positional/Swing Traders, this topic is covered in details.

Coming back to the chart, you can see that the neckline is broken with a good conviction. This breakout can take stock to further highs. One should also observe that there is an hurdle coming up near 570. However it should not be difficult for bulls to to take that out.

Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up.

Channel breakout in Britannia

Britannia Industries chart had a typical breakout formation yesterday. Since last one year, precisely since Aug 15, chart was trading in a channel. Yesterday, the stock has exploded with volumes out of this trading channel. This has also confirmed Up Flag Pattern formation. This Flag would be more prominent on weekly chart.(weekly candle yet not completely formed). There is support area near 2995.

This breakout is expected to push the stock prices to higher levels. 

Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up.  

Bharat Forge Trading near support

During the days of Jan & Feb 2015 Bharat Forge was one of the favourites of market. The stock has seen healthy correction between April 15 and July 16. That period is more than a year.

I am tracking Bharat Forge since Nov 15 for a possible up move after the correction. However it took long for this stock the start the well deserved move.

Let me explain the larger picture first. On monthly chart you can see that there is a good demand area near the levels of 712 and 823. This is where the biggies would have accumulated the stock slowly and gradually. This accumulation was expected to burst at some point. We have seen stock gaining 12% on 5^th Aug. Notice the volumes with which it has zoomed. A positive divergence on monthly chart is confirming the momentum.

On weekly chart you can see similar observations where the stock is indicating at the possible change of cycle from ‘lower low lower high’ to ‘higher high higher low’. There are some hurdles along the way. However bulls are seen powerful enough to take out these hurdles.

A detailed alert with levels (entry, stoploss and targets) is issued to paid subscribers. For more details you can call me on 9371444875.

 Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up.  

Major Indices ready for a correction?

Just wanted to share a quick update on Indices.

Its all green everywhere. Nifty is cruising everyday. We know markets can't move one way. A correction is inevitable and healthy as well. Has the time come for a correction?
Nifty daily chart is indicating at a negative divergence. This is not a very comfortable situation. A correction ( can't really spell out the quantum of the correction).
Next good support for Nifty is at 8540.

Nifty, Bank Nifty, Nifty Mid Cap and Nifty Small Cap charts can bee seen below:

 Nifty daily chart:

Bank Nifty Daily

Nifty Mid cap Daily

Nifty Small Cap Daily

Correction likely to be over in Dishman Pharma

Dishman Pharma is a Midcap Pharma company. It is a supplier to major pharma companies world over.

Here is an analysis of Technical Structure of Dishman Pharma. 

Before getting into Dishman Pharma analysis, would like to give you a post analysis update of a related study of Pharma sector (Large Cap Pharma Companies) I had done on 29th June. You can read that analysis here Pharma stocks likely to move over 15% from current levels

Movement in Major Pharma stocks since 29th June is:

Dr Reddy: 12%

Lupin: 13%

Sunpharma: 4.5%

Auropharma: 10%

Biocon: 12%

Lupin: 5%

Coming back to Dishman Pharma - it seems that Dishman Pharma has completed classic correction on monthly chart.

I have marked all the levels here on chart enclosed. You can see that the stock has broken out of resistance near 128-132 in month of Sep 15 and posted a high of 209.90 in Nov 15. Previous high of stock was 227 in Jan 2008. This high acted as a resistance when stock tried to break above all time high in Nov 15. Since then the stock has been correcting.  

The stock has posted a low of 127.95 in Jun 16. This is the same level from where stock had broken in the month of Sep 2015. Now the level is acting as support. We can assume that the stock is trying to take support at this level.

After posting low of 127.95 on 24 Jun 16 stock is showing symptoms of recovery. This is further emphasised by a double bottomish structure on 19 July 16. Currently stock is trading in a range. This range is between 127 and 148. The resistance near 148 (can bee seen on daily chart) may be broken sooner or later. If stock shows some correction from current level, that will be an accumulating opportunity. 

 

Next major resistance is near 165-170. We can expect stock to cross the hurdles this time to break all time high and start its next bull run.

Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up.  

Beginning of a new bull run in Mahindra & Mahindra

This Auto major is one of the most versatile players in the sector. They have presence in all the categories from agriculture to luxury cars to two wheelers.

Mahindra and Mahindra is cruising with the new initiatives in terms of product category, which is making them a strong player lesser prone to sector fluctuation as compared to other players.

On Technical charts there is a classic formation. You can see from the chart enclosed here that the stock has been trading in a broad range since Sep 2014 till June 2016. This range was between 1140 to 1410. In June 2016 stock closed beyond this range at a price of 1429. This suggests a range break out on monthly chart.

Before the period consolidation (trading range of Sep 2014-June 2016) the chart had given a nice run up of 776 to 1407 in a period from Sep 13 till Aug 14. That run up has given more than 80% returns to investors. The run up had come after a break in range just before this run up.

Similar pattern seem to have been emerging on the chart. This is good for medium term investors who are looking to invest for a period of 6 months to a couple of years.

Currently stock is trading near 1475. On daily chart there is a support near 1400. The prices can correct upto that level which will be an accumulation opportunity to investors.

To generate similar trading / investing ideas get yourself trained on classical charting techniques. In my course I cover this kind of traditional techniques to generate decent returns over medium term and short term. Check the courses here 

Read my blog for many such articles.

Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up.  

Pharma stocks likely to move over 15% from current levels

Pharma stocks have been correcting since last year. The correction in this sector has lasted more than that of Nifty. While Nifty made a bottom in Feb 2016, majority of pharma stocks continued with their bearish trend.

Brexit could not impact pharma stocks as much it was hyped to be. Due to Brexit Indian Rupee gained good miles against Pound and Euro. Possibly these stocks are getting benefited by increase of INR against Pound and Euro.

Since last few days pharma stocks are ‘basing’ near their long term support. On monthly charts a nice revival pattern is probably in the process of formation. On daily charts formation of higher high and higher low is evident. Some of them are moving out of a long trading range.

Let’s take Cipla as a case study:

Cipla: Cipla has a nice Demand area and a support on monthly chart near the levels of 450-457. You can see that Cipla has made a low of 457.45 in the month of May. On daily chart it has formed a trading range near this support between 457 and 490. Yesterday it broke out of a trading range to close near 497. This suggests us that there can be a short term upside in Cipla. Resistances are near 500 and 520. However if it breaks beyond 545, the stock can have substantial upside.

Cipla Monthly Chart

Cipla Daily Chart

Similar signals can be seen on the charts of Dr Reddy, Lupin and Sunpharma. Auropharma, Biocon are looking good on charts.

Classical charting and Technical Analysis, if analysed and traded with proper risk management, can give us miraculous results. You can read a similar article I had written on possible upside in PSU Banks here.

Similarly a classic charting pattern in Kiri Industries has made it move by more than 50% in a month. Check here why Kiri Industries has given whooping 50% in one month.

I have planned a Traders Training Program through online mode which is starting on 4^th July. If you are part time or full time trader, consider taking this course. The course is focused more on coaching than training. It has 6 months live trading sessions included as a part of program. 

Read more details of Online Traders Training to safely make regular income from stock markets. 

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Advanced Traders Training Program - New Online Batch

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Training is suitable for full time and part time intra-day, swing and Positional Traders. Traders from all segments like Equity, Commodity and Currency will be benefited. 

Highlights of the Training: 

Training is based around theme of 'Trading for Living" 

Learn trading with live practice sessions 

 Advanced Technical Analysis 

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Use of Demand/ Supply for accurate entry 

Futures and Options for leveraged trading, how to use them to lower risk

Trading Options with simple methodologies, low investments to make high profits

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Weekly follow-up session for next 6 months

There is no formula for success in stock markets. We teach you the Technique and not the formula

The course will start on 4th July and will run till 3rd week of July

Timing will be 11.30 am to 1.30 pm, Saturday's - 10 am to 2 pm

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How to trade Nifty post BREXIT -Nifty View for week 27 Jun-1 Jul

Exit of Britain form European Union has left the world economies in a big worry. The quantum of effect of Brexit is much lower on Indian Economy as compared to the world. Traders / Investors in Indian markets have much less reasons to worry and the same is exhibited by Nifty's recovery of more than 100 points from the low point on Friday. 

How should one look forward to trade Nifty post Brexit News? 

Technical Overview: Last week Nifty opened at 8115 and closed at 8088. That  was hardly a range of 27 points. On weekly chart Nifty has formed a spinning top. This spinning top has come at higher end of the curve.  A spinning top indicates neutral sentiments. However since it is near resistance, it might want to hint us at the possible change of trend. The fall in Nifty can be looked as the correction in an ongoing uptrend. On daily chart Nifty has smartly recovered from traditional support of 7940, forming a bullish hammer candle. Overall setup indicates that bulls does not want to give up their control. This is still a buyers market. 

Supports are 7940 and 7880. Resistance is at 8100 and at 8140.  

My View: In my last posts I had mentioned the support at 7990, this support has nicely held by Nifty in Friday's session and markets recovered from there. We have also been talking about buy on dips in every opportunity. The view still remains. However, with Friday movement Nifty's upside is currently capped at 8200. Nifty will find it difficult to move beyond this level. Nifty can move further up from current levels, but may not sustain at higher levels and can test the current bottom of 7940 once in times to come. 

Read daily view on Nifty for intraday traders and many trading articles on my blog 

I have planned a Traders Training Program through online mode which is starting on 4th July. If you are part time or full time trader, consider taking this course. The course is focused more on coaching than training. It has 6 months live trading sessions included as a part of program. 

Read more details of Traders Training to safely make regular income from stock markets. 

Join the Training 

If you wish to be part of group of happy training participants write me at unmesh@bonvista.in or directly subscribe through my website 

I have enclosed the chart below to understand the levels on chart 

Nifty Analysis for 24 June

 BREXIT outcome will play major role in deciding the market swings today. SGX Nifty as at 8.15 am is suggesting a gap down of 150 points.

If Nifty gaps down anywhere below 8188, Nifty is breaking a crucial support. It turns out to be sell on rise market.

Nifty support areas are 8170 and 8140. If Nifty gaps below these levels, these areas will act as resistance. Thers is a high possibility that Nifty may bounce immediately after opening. This is an opportunity to create shorts.

Nifty has major support near 8070 and then at 7992.

Hope you remember the weekly view where I had written about bigger picture is indicating correction in Nifty.

My next Advanced Traders Training (Traders Mentor Program) through Online Mode is scheduled from 4^th July. The training is for traders in Equity, Commodity and Currency.

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Nifty 15 min Chart

Nifty Analysis for 22 June

On intra-day charts Nifty is forming a range.

Ranges can be traded on breakouts. Current range between 8227-8207 is a very narrow range.

Buy if Nifty breaks above this range and sell if it breaks below this range.

If Nifty breaks below, it has first support near 8188-8180. Next support is at 8162.

If Nifty breaks above 8227, one can initiate long positions.

In my course on Stock Markets and Technical Analysis there is a separete topic on how to effectively trade the ranges.

Nifty 15 min Chart

 

 Advanced Traders Training Program

I am planning to have an online batch through Webinar.

Final Schedule for training-

4^th, 5^th, 6^th July- 11.30 am-1.30 pm

9^th and 10^th- 10 am- 2 pm

11^th,12^th, 13^th – 11.30 am to 1.30 pm

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23^rd – 10 am to 2 pm

The course is for Intra-day, Swing and Positional Traders. The course is designed to help make traders consistent profits with their own trading style.

Highlights of the course-

Detailed Technical Analysis and its intricacies, Classical charting Techniques

Derivatives- Futures and Options (including practical Options Strategies)

Open Interest, Volumes to trade effectively

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How to trade Commodities and Forex for consistent profits

Concept of Demand and Supply

One to one counselling to “Decide your Trading Personality Type”

More details are available on request at unmesh@bonvista.in

This is a practical course designed around ‘coaching’ than ‘training’.

Course will take approximately 40 hours to complete. Tentative schedule will be 4 hours on Saturday- Sunday each and 2 hours on working days- 3 days a week.

For pre-registrations, you can mail me at unmesh@bonvista.in or call on 9371444875

Nifty Analysis for 21 June

Yesterday Nifty daily chart formed a bullish candle. This pattern suggests us that the bulls are in control. On intra-day chart Nifty is now trading near a 15 min supply zone. Nifty can see some pressure during first half of the trade today. Aggressive traders can go short near current levels. A better trade can be a long trade near support at 8200-8190 level. If Nifty moves beyond 8255, it’s a buy with a greater conviction. Nifty 15 min Chart   Advanced Traders Training Program – 10 days to go I am planning to have an online batch through Webinar. The course is for Intra-day, Swing and Positional Traders. The course is designed to help make traders consistent profits with their own trading style. Course Covers- Detailed Technical Analysis and its intricacies, Classical charting Techniques Derivatives- Futures and Options (including practical Options Strategies) Open Interest, Volumes to trade effectively Risk Management- how to minimize losses and maximize profits in Futures and Options How to trade Commodities and Forex for consistent profits Concept of Demand and Supply One to one counselling to “Decide your Trading Personality Type” More details are available on request at unmesh@bonvista.in This is a practical course designed around ‘coaching’ than ‘training’. Course will take approximately 40 hours to complete. Tentative schedule will be 4 hours on Saturday- Sunday each and 2 hours on working days- 3 days a week. For pre-registrations, you can mail me at unmesh@bonvista.in or call on 9371444875 My Latest articles: Potential to move 46% from current level- Kiri Industries (Written on June 6, this stock moved over 50% since the date of article) Read 5 steps to keep your Technical Analysis simple

Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisory before taking any decisions based on above write-up.