Sunday, December 15, 2013



Market View for week 16-20 Dec:
Bears have taken strong control of the market through-out the last week. Market fell consecutively for 5 days.
Nifty has support at in the range 6150-6170. If nifty holds this support on Monday, it is likely to bounce back to intermediate resistance level of 6230. This can happen in 3-4 trading sessions. In a very short term we can expect a small upward move in the week to come.
If this support 6150 is broken on closing basis, we can expect Nifty to move down. The next strong support is in the range of 6090-6110.
However Nifty is in upward momentum in the medium term. Small pullbacks downward can be used as buying opportunities by investors. Traders should use small moves on either side to go long or short. Be stock specific. In these market conditions, earn money on both sides.




Recommendations of the week:
IDFC: Technical Chart of IDFC is suggesting that it is moving further down. Short Sell IDFC near 104 (Future Price) for target of 100. Maintain stoploss at 105.50. Trade this stock for profit potential of 4% during the week to come. 

M&M: Irrespective of weak market conditions  Mahindra & Mahindra has shown strength. Chart is suggesting that it is going higher. Buy M&M near 954-955. Target is 975 and stoploss is 950. Trade this stock for profit potential of 2% during the week. 

TATASTEEL: It has come near support area of 410. Put stoploss near this area. Buy Tatasteel near 418 for target of 430. This gives profit potential of 2.8%.
For any clarifications on these recommendations , you may mail us on support@bonvista.in

Sunday, August 18, 2013

5 actions retail investor should take in falling market

Last few weeks Indian economy has seen mayhem in terms of equity market movement southwards. There has been substantial movement (up or down) in all major indicators i.e. equity indexes such as Sensex, Nifty, Currency Indexes such as USD-Rupee, Precious metals such as Gold and Silver, Bond yield etc. They are interlinked and will make each other move.
What the retail investor should do in such a situations? We have come up with 5 actions that one can take about his investments in such volatility.
1.        ULIP(Unit Linked Insurance Policies)- If your money is held in equity or equityoriented fund and you are near (up to 1 year) the maturity or withdrawal then you are due for action. Your priority is to protect the interest earned on investment so far. Most ULIP have different fund options such as Equity, debt and money market or combination of them You should switch them from Equity to Money Market (Liquid) fund. While switching from equity to liquid, one should do so near high of broader markets.

2.       Shares: Unless you are ultra-long (more than 5 years) term investor, you are due for action. Most shares fall in price during fall in broader market. So sell your holdings near high and wait patiently for markets to bottom out. You may buy same shares (provided they are fundamentally sound) near bottom again. (Most retail investors do exactly opposite-Buy near high and Sell near low) 

3.       EquityMutual Funds (MF)- Investors tend to withdraw from MF when the markets are falling. As a result the fund faces pressure to perform. If you are not willing to hold the investment for long term or you are planning to withdraw from fund in near future, it is better to withdraw from equity fund. Alternatively you can switch the funds to safer options like liquid fund.

4.     Silver & Gold: It is possible when equities not performing, gold & silver are doing well. Focus on these investment alternatives by way of ETFs, Physical purchase or through futures.

5.     Short Term Alternatives: You may switch to short term investment alternatives if you have expertise. You can earn in falling markets by way short selling in equity orcommodity in F&O. You can temporarily park amount available in liquid funds, and s switch to equity when you fill markets are reversing.

Saturday, August 10, 2013

Put your Money to work

We often listen and use the term “Money Grows” or “Money Multiplies”.
Is it actually the money that grows?
No. In fact money’s only characteristic is that it reduces (depreciates) in price over a period of time.
Let’s take an example. One could buy 1 litre of Milk in Rs 8 in 1980. Today, if I go to the grocer, give him Rs. 8 and ask for 1 Litre of milk. He will either laugh at me or throw me out.   Rs 8 have depreciated in its value. Today milk costs around Rs 48 a litre. The value of Rs 8 is depreciated to one sixth in last 30 years or so.
In literal sense money depreciates if it is kept idle. Years back people did not have many alternatives to invest their money. They used to store the cash or coins in their lockers. What has happened to that cash when it was found years later by their next generation? The money was much less worth (or worthless) than what it was when it was stored.
So why we say that money grows?
Let’s take same example. Suppose, people who had stored coins or notes in their locker would have, instead, bought the gold worth that amount and kept in their lockers. Their next generation would have appreciated the ancestors pretty much than in earlier case. Consider the period of keeping the gold to be around 1950s. The value would have been appreciated 280 times today.
It is not the money that grows. It is the asset or service bought in exchange of money that grows in value.
Put your money to work. Don’t let it lie idle.
Either buy assets with the money you have. You will gain the appreciated returns. Assets will grow in price. You will sell it at higher cost to earn profit. Lend (put on rent) your money to someone (let’s say a Bank) and they will pay you periodical rent for using your money. The rent paid is known as interest.
The next task is to choose the asset class (which assets to be bought) or investment class (whom to rent the money). Here the risk reward ratio comes into picture. The more the risk you are willing to take with your money, the more the chance of your money growing faster.
Suppose you have Rs 2 Lac on an average (average balance) lying in your savings account for last 2 years. You would have earned interest of around 28000 with 4.5% compounded ROI in 2 years.
Instead, if you would have bought a piece of land or would have invested in shares or would have bought even a Fixed Deposit, your chances of earning more returns on Rs 2 Lac were far greater. If you would have sold the asset for Rs 3 Lac after 2 years, you would have earned returns with ROI of 14.5%. So as compared to investing in assets or putting it in better asset class, money was lying as good as unused in savings account for last 2 years.
Of course, there is little extra risk involved in all these options. But, as per rule, even the bank does not guarantee your capital beyond amount of Rs 1 Lac. So the risk is everywhere. We are exposed to life threat every time we move on road. It’s the difference in the amount of risk depending on which mode of travel we move by or which road we travel on.
Even in a family or office everyone has some or other task. We do not want a member of family or of office to sit idle. Why let our money sit idle.
So, the next job is to check and identify, which portion of your money is not working for you. Which investment or asset is not earning you the expected returns.It may call for redefining your portfolio.

Last week Nifty continued to fall for 3 days and touched a low of 5486 but managed to close at 5519. Nifty managed to hold this psychological level of 5500.  From here it started its pullback rally on Thursday, which was last session of the week. The closing on Thursday was 5565.

BhartiAirtel: Has taken support at 325 and shown signs of strong rally upward. In the week to come expect Bharti to touch 350-355. Buy Bharti at current level of 337 for target of 350. Maintain Stoploss at 322.
Biocon: Biocon broke out with convincing volumes on Thursday. It will touch the next level of resistance which is at 380. Buy Biocon at 337-340 and expect target of 380 in next few days. Maintain Stoploss at 325.




Disclaimer: Nifty view and recommendations are given to the best of our analysis and data available with us. No one should understand these recommendations as advice. There is substantial amount of risk involved. Bonvista Financial Planners is in no way responsible for any loss occurring out of any transactions.

Sunday, August 4, 2013

How is trading different than investing?

Difference between Trading and Investing
After I wrote my last post, many readers were interested in understanding the difference between Trading and Investing.
This post is an attempt to understand how trading is different than investing (in stock market).
Cricket being most popular game in our country, let me use the same analogy here. All of us know the difference between T20 Vs One day. One is short term form while another is little longer. T20 offers its own thrills while One day has its own charm.
Similarly both, investing and trading have their ‘good’ and ‘bad’.
Let’s understand them one by one-
Investing:
Investors usually choose Value Stocks (stocks which are available today at a cheaper rate and are expected to grow in value in next few years) after doing research.  The research can include fundamentals about company. Investors buy these stocks and keep them in their kitty for long term. Investors put limited amount of time in researching the stocks. The holding period usually spans from 1 year to several years. Investors are not bothered about short term fluctuations in stock prices. Investors can earn good returns when the markets are rising. Limited buying selling transactions take place. Investors may buy these stocks by aiming specific life goals like retirement.  
Let’s take an example. One share of HDFC Bank was costing at Rs.200 in 2008. Today one share of HDFC Bank is costing approximately Rs.650. So this stock has generated return of 225% in 5 years. Per year return are approximately 45%. So to earn the return of 225% only two transactions took place. Buying in 2008 and selling in 2013.  
Trading:
Trading, on the other hand, is short term buying or short selling activity to earn profit. The span of a trade is usually from 1 day to six months. Traders use tools like Technical Analysis to predict short term moves of the stock. Traders believe in booking the profit in decided time span. If the stock is not moving in the expected direction, traders exit that stock and enter into another trade. Large number of buying-selling transactions are executed. Traders can earn profit in rising as well as falling markets. (Read my article ‘Investing in Futures’ to understand how you can earn in falling markets). Traders spend lot of time every day to analyse the market moves for coming days or hours.
You may not trade with an amount which is kept for specific goals in life, but the one which is a buffer and you would like to earn better than best returns at the cost of some extra risk. It is like generating extra income source through trading of stocks.
Let’s take an example. A Trader was bullish on Tata Motors which was trading at 270 on 27 June 13. Trader decides to buy Tata Motors as his research tells that it would move higher at or around 300. The stock achieves desired price on 25 July 2013. Here trader decides to book profit. The profit is 11% in the period one month. Immediately after this period, trader’s analysis tells him that the stock would move down to 280 in next few days. Here a trader would short sell the stock on 25th July and buy it back once the stock achieves price of 280 on 31 July, thus earning 6.6% profit in duration of 4 days.
Trading is strongly supported by advancement in Technology like online terminals, various technical analysis tools, trading advisory services, margins offered by brokers, lot of information on internet etc. 

Finally, you need to decide which one suits you. 
Difference between Trading and Investing
After I wrote my last post, many readers were interested in understanding the difference between Trading and Investing.
This post is an attempt to understand how trading is different than investing (in stock market).
Cricket being most popular game in our country, let me use the same analogy here. All of us know the difference between T20 Vs One day. One is short term form while another is little longer. T20 offers its own thrills while One day has its own charm.
Similarly both, investing and trading have their ‘good’ and ‘bad’.
Let’s understand them one by one-
Investing:
Investors usually choose Value Stocks (stocks which are available today at a cheaper rate and are expected to grow in value in next few years) after doing research.  The research can include fundamentals about company. Investors buy these stocks and keep them in their kitty for long term. Investors put limited amount of time in researching the stocks. The holding period usually spans from 1 year to several years. Investors are not bothered about short term fluctuations in stock prices. Investors can earn good returns when the markets are rising. Limited buying selling transactions take place. Investors may buy these stocks by aiming specific life goals like retirement.  
Let’s take an example. One share of HDFC Bank was costing at Rs.200 in 2008. Today one share of HDFC Bank is costing approximately Rs.650. So this stock has generated return of 225% in 5 years. Per year return are approximately 45%. So to earn the return of 225% only two transactions took place. Buying in 2008 and selling in 2013.  
Trading:
Trading, on the other hand, is short term buying or short selling activity to earn profit. The span of a trade is usually from 1 day to six months. Traders use tools like Technical Analysis to predict short term moves of the stock. Traders believe in booking the profit in decided time span. If the stock is not moving in the expected direction, traders exit that stock and enter into another trade. Large number of buying-selling transactions are executed. Traders can earn profit in rising as well as falling markets. (Read my article ‘Investing in Futures’ to understand how you can earn in falling markets). Traders spend lot of time every day to analyse the market moves for coming days or hours.
You may not trade with an amount which is kept for specific goals in life, but the one which is a buffer and you would like to earn better than best returns at the cost of some extra risk. It is like generating extra income source through trading of stocks.
Let’s take an example. A Trader was bullish on Tata Motors which was trading at 270 on 27 June 13. Trader decides to buy Tata Motors as his research tells that it would move higher at or around 300. The stock achieves desired price on 25 July 2013. Here trader decides to book profit. The profit is 11% in the period one month. Immediately after this period, trader’s analysis tells him that the stock would move down to 280 in next few days. Here a trader would short sell the stock on 25th July and buy it back once the stock achieves price of 280 on 31 July, thus earning 6.6% profit in duration of 4 days.
Trading is strongly supported by advancement in Technology like online terminals, various technical analysis tools, trading advisory services, margins offered by brokers, lot of information on internet etc. 

Finally, you need to decide which one suits you. 

Sunday, July 28, 2013

I am too busy to trade stocks!


While most of us have one or more Demat and Trading accounts. You primarily open this account because someone has insisted you to open an account. Or you heard that investing in share market gives good returns. Or may be, just because your peers have one.

Once you are done with account opening formalities, you are eager to trade actively. Your broker is more interested in the transactions done by you, as each transaction generates him brokerage. 

He starts recommending you the stocks which are expected to move up. You are exited and you start buying as per his recommendations. 

Initial few days/months are full of excitement. You track all you shares closely. You also create a portfolio on one of the free websites to track the prices closely.

This goes on for a while.  Your schedule hardly allows you to track the portfolio regularly. 

One fine day you hear the markets are falling. You rush and check your portfolio. This is when you realize that prices of shares you bought are falling badly.

You are panic and ring up you broker. He tells you to wait in the anticipation of prices to come up. 

As the time elapses, you realize that the prices are falling further. Now, you are worried. You feel that you have been given wrong recommendations. 
If broker recommends you to buy further, you reject to do so! 

By now you lose faith in broker and eventually shares market. Slowly and steadily you start losing interest in your Trading/Demat account and eventually you loose interest in investing in stocks.

This is not unique. This happens with most of us, when we start investing in stock market.
Lets try and understand why this has happened and how this can be avoided-

Try and answer following questions-
Did you really want to invest in shares?
Did you know what time frame you are buying for?
Did you have time/patience to understand more about the companies you are investing in?
Did you have ‘proper’ resources to study the companies, the broader market, the economic cycle, the market phase?


Have you thought whether you wanted to ‘Invest’ or you wanted to ‘Trade’?
Did you have a mentor to guide you to all above?

Here is a brief attempt to throw some light on all issues above. 
We need to accept the fact that, be it investing or be it trading, you need to know, much deeper than just knowing names of few scrip’s. 

You are willing to enter the market, but are not willing (or you don’t have time) to gain knowledge about it, you will not go anywhere, but ‘northward’. Try and put exclusive time and efforts in learning the basic what, why, when and how of market.

Learn how much of your total savings to be invested in share market, how much risk you can take, what is the time frame you want to be in,  do you have psyche to trade yourself.

Finally find someone who can help you in all these things.

If you do not have time, you need to believe someone. There are many people who are extending their services at a nominal cost, it is worth the returns and learning. There are others who do the research and give you trading calls or long term investing ideas.

There is huge information available on internet, if you want to learn. You can start doing things on your own. 
Here is a list of some good books, you may find worth reading-
http://www.amazon.com/Investment-Books-for-Beginners/lm/RFRGY456GQTJF

Have questions- put me a mail. Your comments are welcome.

Sunday, July 21, 2013

http://bonvista.in/index.php

The week gone by is a learning for the ones who want to understand what the word choppy market means. The only consistency was being inconsistent. Finally Nifty failed to hold above 6050. The giant Reliance results are out & are in line with the expectations. Now what do we expect here onward? 

Bank Nifty is not willing to cooperate and has seen huge pressure. Unless Bank Nifty supports, Nifty can not move up.

Next week Thursday is expiry of this series. More companies will be announcing their results. Some them will down the index and some will try to pull it up. The choppy nature is expected to continue in the week to come.
How there are many stock which have kept their loyalty to Trend. 

Ranbaxy, after retracing 50%, started it downward journey. Safe to assume that will continue to slide till 305 and can be good short sell idea.

Read for More Ideas......................

Trading Tip for the Week: Trend is your Friend. Trade by the side of trend.

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Monday, May 13, 2013

Investing in Futures


                                     Investing in Futures

In equity market we invest by purchasing shares of certain company. The money grows when the the price of the share grows and we book profit by selling these shares. This is called as cash segment of equity market. Most of us know this.

There are more instruments in equity market where we can invest or 'trade' for earning profit. These instruments are usually derived from a Company's Stock (Share) as a base instrument. These are called as Derivative and the segment is called as derivative segment. The types of derivatives are Futures and Options. 

Lets talk about futures for the time being. To put it simply, in futures, the investors or traders predict the future price of a security (share). 

The Futures are traded in lots. The volume (No. of shares) in One Lot are so adjusted that the price  of one lot comes between  2.25 L to 3 L (approx).  But while trading in Futures we do not have to pay all the amount (Price of a lot). Instead we pay a margin to the broker. For instance in May 213 series one lot of TCS is of 250 shares. Price of TCS is currently at 1470. So the price of lot comes to 250*1470= 367500. But the broker ask us a margin of around 62000. It means we buy share worth Rs367500  in 62000. The profit or is to be adjusted on daily basis.
The futures trade in 3 monthly series and the series expires on last Thursday of the month. If we are holding a position, we have to compulsorily square off the position on the day of expiry. 

You can earn money in rising market as well as falling market. How? We know that we can buy futures (consider a lot of shares) and sell it at higher price to earn profit. But the 'news' is that we can 'Sell" futures at a higher price (before buying it), and later 'Buy' (square off) the futures at a lower price, to earn profit.  


Now, why do we trade in futures?
The beauty is that it offers two big advantages over Cash Market-
1. For buying one lot of Futures, you just have to pay 15-20% of total cost of the lot.
2. You can earn money in rising market as well as falling market.

Based on our Research and Analysis we invest either on Long (Buy) or Short (Sell) side to earn profit for our customers.

The risk reward ratio is quite favorable in Futures, though there is risk involved, if the discipline is not followed.

I tried to make it as simple as possible. Hope I am clear in what I wanted to convey.

Please get back on anything that I can help you on. (bonvistaplanners@gmail.com)
Check our performance for April Series:
Inline image 2

Friday, April 12, 2013

Technical Analysis to design suitable trading strategy!

Workshop on Technical Analysis and designing of suitable strategy.

Technical Analysis is like a powerful map in deep jungle. It guides us through the jungle of shares in very simplified manner. 

The name Technical Analysis seem to be very complicated, but believe me the fact is oppoisite. Any one can learn and implement the Technical Analysis to reduce losses and increase profits.

Being Financial Planners we feel that literacy about the equities in Indian Markets need to improve. We feel the common man should participate in equity market to earn good returns. 

We are coming up with a 2 days workshop on Technical Analysis for equity market
This workshop will enable you to enter the market confidently. If you are already in the market, TA will be powerful weapon with you to deal with bulls and bears of the market.

Anyone who knows what is Share can participate in the workshop.

To know more about the program, just fill up inquiry form on this site or write to us on unmesh@bonvista.in or call us on 9371444875