Nifty analysis for 1 June 2016

Range for Nifty continues. Today as well Nifty is expected to consolidate in the range.   Bulls does not seem to have strength. Buying Nifty is suggested only on breakout beyond 8200. Intraday Sell Nifty on rise near 8180 and 8200 levels. Nifty 15 min Chart   Swing/positional trades for the day: Sell Reliance Communication for a target of 44. Stoploss is 49.3 Sell Glenmark for a target of 839. Stoploss is 865 Buy Tatasteel for a target of 345. Stoploss is 327 Buy Colgate Palmolive for a target of 890. Stoploss is 845 Buy Aurobindo Pharma for a target of 810. Stoploss is 760 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Recent gainers recommended by us Read 5 steps to keep your Technical Analysis simple Pidilite Industries breaking out -now up 16.5% from recommended price (Read Pidilite article written on 3 March) SKS Micro Finance booked profit with 19.8% gains from buying price (Read article written on 25 Apr) Berger Paint booked profit with 21.85% gains from buying price M&M Financial Services up 32% from buying price (Booked) (Read article written on 12 April)

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5 step guide to keep your Technical Analysis simple

Advantages of technology are counter productive some times. Internet has made us available plethora of information, but its very difficult to choose the right piece of information from all the stuff available after a simple google search. 

Similarly in Technical Analysis, there are so many ways and means of doing the analysis, so many tools to use, so many methods and so many techniques. Add to it, so many good charting software available in market, makes it difficult to choose a right one for an individual trader. A first hand learner usually find himself lost in the sea of indicators, oscillators and averages and what not.

Its about choosing the best that suits your trading style. Here is a 5 step guide to keep your Technical Analysis simple -

1. Decide your objective- Decide whether you want to be Trader or a Student. If you are a trader then confine yourself to learn only that much (at least during your initial trading days) which is required to your trading style. You can just pick them randomly, if you don't know what to look for. If you are a student and just want to learn Technical Analysis for purposes other than trading then access all the information available through sources like internet. A trader must not get himself lost sea of information. Instead its about rejecting what comes your way. Don't spend hours watching You Tube videos of indicators / oscillators not of use to you.

2. Use the basic- Confine yourself to basics like Trend, Support/Resistance, Candlestick Patterns and Chart Patterns. These are the basic tools one should use to take buy / sell / hold decision. Indicators, Oscillators and Moving Averages are just the support tools. Don't use them for decision making. Rather use them to support your buy/sell decision. In My Courses I thrust on using the basics and use of only one indicator that will support your decision.

3. Perfect a few of them- Instead of learning lot of things available in the field of Technical Analysis, use and try and perfect only couple of them. Any tool in Technical Analysis is actually understood after using and practising it over a period of time. Do lot of back-testing or paper trading on one or two set of tools which you are comfortable with. Practising few things is rather more important than learning many things.

4. Trading is not only about analysis- Trading in not only about analysis. Be it Technical or Fundamental. There are many important things like Risk Management, Money Management and Psychology Management. These things play a rather important role than any analysis in your trading success.

5. Take a break- More analysis does not mean more perfection. More tools does not mean greater success. More analysis does not mean more money. Take a break, decide your set of tools (in technical analysis) as a pat of trading plan and strategy. 

Any analysis play only 40% role in your trading success. So don't be over complicated. You will earn good profits even if you are 'right' only in 65-70% of the trades with correct Risk Reward Ratio, 

This is how we booked 19.8% in SKS Microfinance

We had bought SKS Microfinance on 16 Feb 16 at an entry price of 530.
This was bought as the stock had started getting into the formation of higher top higher bottom on daily time frame.
Also on monthly time frame the stock was about to breakout of rounding bottom formation.

Here is an article I had written on SKS Microfinance on 25th April.

SKS Microfinance - Potential to move 100% in one year

Though, the stock has lot of steam still left and can further move up from here, I have exited from my portfolio of Prime Cash as my objective is met. My portfolio is basically a short to medium term portfolio and is run for quick gains in stocks.

I have exited the stock at current level as there is a larger time frame resistance at current level. This zone is between 620-730. I feel stock will consolidate at current level before starting a further up move.

Hence I have exited at a price of 635 on 30 May with the gains of 19.8%. 

Here is a snap shot of complete trade from my Portfolio Advisory System which is accessed by my paid subscribers.

There is lot of debate on whether Technical Analysis really works, This is how I would put it. Its not only about Technical Analysis (or any other analysis for that matter) to make money in stock markets. There are so many other factors which are responsible for one to make or loose money. For example a portfolio framework, trading / investing discipline etc. The whole basket decides whether you will make money or not.

I run this Model Portfolio Prime Cash for retail investors /traders in Indian stock markets. This portfolio has been dong well consistently. 

Here is a small write up on my portfolio

Click here for all the details on portfolio

Click here to subscribe for model portfolio

 

Nifty Analysis for 31 May

Nifty is currently trading in bull exhaustion phase. After long rally bulls prefer to rest and markets get into consolidation. On 15 min chart Nifty is seen forming a range. Ranges break on either side. Buying Nifty would be risky at this stage as Nifty is trading near resistance on daily chart. Aggressive traders may look to buy Nifty on breakout beyond 8200. Sell Nifty if it breaks below 8155. This trade can come with good rewards. Supports are near 8080 and 8030 Nifty 15 min Chart    Swing/positional trades for the day: Sell Zee Entertainment for target of 425. Stoploss is 454 Sell Maruti for target of 3970. Stoploss is 4135 Sell HDFC Ltd for a target of 1195. Stoploss is 1260 Buy IDFC for a target of 55. Stoploss is 49.20 Buy Dish TV for a target of 90.5. Stoploss is 85.40 Recent gainers recommended by us Pidilite Industries breaking out -now up 19% from recommended price (Read Pidilite article written on 3 March) SKS Micro Finance up 19% from buying price (Read article written on 25 Apr) Berger Paint up 23% from buying price M&M Financial Services up 32% from buying price (Booked) (Read article written on 12 April)

Next Batch on Stock Markets and Technical Analysis (Online Mode) The training will be conducted by Traders Coach Unmesh Deshmukh. Unmesh's training style is appraised by many stalwarts in the field. This result oriented course is for beginners as well as experienced traders who wish to learn trading / investing using practical aspects of Technical Analysis. Only 10 participants. Training Days are: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 9th and 10th June Timing : 11 am to 1 pm Course Fees: 4500/- only Click here for all the details Call on 09371444875 for more details

Nifty Analysis for 30 May

Nifty is expected to open gap up in a supply (resistance) area. Nifty can experience selling pressure after opening today. Its too late to enter a buy trade in Nifty now. This is how one can trade Nifty today. Wait patiently for Nifty to give clear indication for first 15 min. If Nifty fails to sustain around 8200 levels, then aggressive traders can go short for some quick gains. Alternatively wait patiently for Nifty to come down to its support near 8080 to create long position. Next suuport is near 8030 Nifty 15 min Chart   Swing/positional trades for the day: Sell Tata Chemical for target of 425. Stoploss is 443 Sell Axis Bank for target of 505. Stoploss is 512 Buy Reliance Capital for target of 430. Stoploss is 403   Recent gainers recommended by us Pidilite Industries breaking out -now up 18% from recommended price (Read Pidilite article written on 3 March) SKS Micro Finance up 19% from buying price (Read article written on 25 Apr) Berger Paint up 21% from buying price M&M Financial Services up 32% from buying price (Booked) (Read article written on 12 April)

Next Batch on Stock Markets and Technical Analysis (Online Mode) The training will be conducted by Traders Coach Unmesh Deshmukh. Unmesh's training style is appraised by many stalwarts in the field. This result oriented course is for beginners as well as experienced traders who wish to learn trading / investing using practical aspects of Technical Analysis. Only 10 participants. Training Days are: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 9th and 10th June Timing : 11 am to 1 pm Course Fees: 4500/- only Click here for all the details Call on 09371444875 for more details

Nifty Analysis for 27 May

Markets run in cycles of expansion and contraction. There has been he expansion in terms of approx 300 points rally in last 2 trading sessions. Nifty is now trading near its resistance of 8090. We can expect Nifty to either consolidate at this level or have some correction in next couple of trading sessions. (It may or may not come immediately today) Supports are at 8030 and 7080 and 7941 Click here to read Nifty view for the week. Nifty 15 min Chart   Swing/positional trades for the day: Buy Federal Bank for target of 56. Stoploss is 51 Buy HDFC for target of 1250. Stoploss is 1210 Sell Bata India for target of 530. Stoploss is 555   Recent gainers recommended by us Pidilite Industries breaking out -now up 12% from recommended price (Read Pidilite article written on 3 March) SKS Micro Finance up 18% from buying price (Read article written on 25 Apr) Berger Paint up 19% from buying price M&M Financial Services up 32% from buying price (Booked) (Read article written on 12 April)

Next Batch on Stock Markets and Technical Analysis (Online Mode) The training will be conducted by Traders Coach Unmesh Deshmukh. Unmesh's training style is appraised by many stalwarts in the field. This result oriented course is for beginners as well as experienced traders who wish to learn trading / investing using practical aspects of Technical Analysis. Only 10 participants. Training Days are: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 9th and 10th June Timing : 11 am to 1 pm Course Fees: 4500/- only Click here for all the details Call on 09371444875 for more details

PSU Banks a good short term contra bet

PSU Banks in India have always been vulnerable to Govt Policies. Quarterly results produced a mixed set of performance.

Sector Index has been falling consistently since Jan 2015. Though the overall market was also not been doing good from since the same date, the difference here is that, many other sectors have tried to bounce during better periods. However for the similar periods the spike in PSU bank stock has been minimal barring some exceptions like SBI.

From monthly chart enclosed here, you can see that PSU Bank Index is trading near its low of Feb 2016. Most Technical Indicators are oversold. The index chart is also trading near gap which was formed on 2 March 2016. This suggests an expected demand level in most PSU Bank Stocks.

On daily chart the Index chart showing a nice momentum. Next resistance is around 2300 which is 5% from here. On a little higher time frame the index can move up to 2900 levels in couple of months. That makes it an upside of 33% from current levels.

Though charts and overall performance is currently not looking good, this can be treated as a contra bet.

Some banks on radar can be IOB, State Bank of India, Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, Union Bank   

Nifty Analysis for 26 May

Well, Nifty is ready to break that long awaited level of 7940. We can expect Nifty to gap up above 7940 to get into new bullish territory. Next level of resistance is 7990. After long run up markets prefer to rest. Today can be one such day. Nifty can trade in a small range with bullish bias. Buy on dips. No short selling. First support is at 7925. Next is at 7880. Resistance is at 7960 and 7990. Click here to read Nifty view for the week. Nifty 15 min Chart   Swing/positional trades for the day: Buy Syndicate Bank for target of 63. Stoploss is 60 Buy Aurobindo Pharma for target of 760. Stoploss is 730 Sell Crompton Greaves for target of 58.8. Stoploss is 62   Recent gainers recommended by us Pidilite Industries breaking out -now up 12% from recommended price (Read Pidilite article written on 3 March) SKS Micro Finance up 16% from buying price (Read article written on 25 Apr) Berger Paint up 17% from buying price M&M Financial Services up 32% from buying price (Booked) (Read article written on 12 April)

Next Batch on Stock Markets and Technical Analysis (Online Mode) The training will be conducted by Traders Coach Unmesh Deshmukh. Unmesh's training style is appraised by many stalwarts in the field. This result oriented course is for beginners as well as experienced traders who wish to learn trading / investing using practical aspects of Technical Analysis. Only 10 participants. Training Days are: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 9th and 10th June Timing : 11 am to 1 pm Course Fees: 4500/- only Click here for all the details Call on 09371444875 for more details

Nifty Analysis for 25 May

We have been talking about Nifty being near its support. Today SGX Nifty is sugesting a gap up in Nifty. Nifty is expected to open near its intraday reistance at 7789-7804 area. If opens in this area, immediate selling can be seen till the levels of 7765. This is a buying opportunity. If Nifty moves above resistance 7804 after opening, a buy on breakout can be done, though little risky. Maintain strict stoploss in this case. Short selling would be difficult today Click here to read Nifty view for the week. Nifty 15 min Chart    Swing/positional trades for the day: Buy M&M Financial Services for target of 315. Stoploss is 295 Buy Godrej Consumer for target of 1430. Stoploss is 1370 Buy Bharatforge for target of 740. Stoploss is 710 Buy Ashok Leyland for target of 106. Stoploss is 99 Buy L&T for target of 1275. Stoploss is 1220   Recent gainers recommended by us Pidilite Industries breaking out -now up 8% from recommended price (Read Pidilite article written on 3 March) SKS Micro Finance up 16% from buying price (Read article written on 25 Apr) Berger Paint up 17% from buying price M&M Financial Services up 32% from buying price (Booked) (Read article written on 12 April)

Next Batch on Stock Markets and Technical Analysis (Online Mode) The training will be conducted by Traders Coach Unmesh Deshmukh. Unmesh's training style is appraised by many stalwarts in the field. This result oriented course is for beginners as well as experienced traders who wish to learn trading / investing using practical aspects of Technical Analysis. Only 10 participants. Training Days are: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 9th and 10th June Timing : 11 am to 1 pm Course Fees: 4500/- only Click here for all the details Call on 09371444875 for more details

Nifty Analysis for 24 May

Nifty Analysis for 24 May As discussed yesterday Nifty is not sustained at the higher levels. Also it was choppy through out the day. Choppy trading is expected to continue today as well. This behaviour of market is highly difficult to trade. More so due to F&O expiry. Nifty is still trading near support of 7710. Lets expect again a bounce from current levels today. Nifty has first resistance near 7750. Sell Nifty only in case it breaks below 7680. Till this point this market remains a buy on dip. Click here to read Nifty view for the week. Nifty 15 min Chart    Swing/positional trades for the day: Buy Dabur for target of 293. Stoploss is 278 Buy Concor for target of 1403. Stoploss is 1350 Buy ACC for target of 1438. Stoploss is 1399 Sell Justdial for target of 660. Stoploss is 725   Recent gainers recommended by us Pidilite Industries breaking out -now up 8% from recommended price (Read Pidilite article written on 3 March) SKS Micro Finance up 16% from buying price (Read article written on 25 Apr) Berger Paint up 17% from buying price M&M Financial Services up 32% from buying price (Booked) (Read article written on 12 April)

Next Batch on Stock Markets and Technical Analysis (Online Mode) The training will be conducted by Traders Coach Unmesh Deshmukh. Unmesh's training style is appraised by many stalwarts in the field. This result oriented course is for beginners as well as experienced traders who wish to learn trading / investing using practical aspects of Technical Analysis. Only 10 participants. Training Days are: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 9th and 10th June Timing : 11 am to 1 pm Course Fees: 4500/- only Click here for all the details Call on 09371444875 for more details

Rounding bottom breakout in Edelweiss suggests 30% upside

Edelweiss Financial Services is one of the fastest growing financial services company.

The company is serving in the areas of Corporate Credit, Insurance, Broking, Investment Banking and Wealth Management.

The stock has been trading below levels of 63.5 since June 2008 until Jan 2015. This is a period of 7 years after it broke below in Jun 2008. Stock tried to break above price of 63.5 in Nov 2010 and then in Jun 2014. Both the attempts failed.

This behaviour leads to a formation of Rounding Bottom pattern on Technical Charts.

Rounding Bottom pattern suggest a long revival period after a major setback to a company. The process of revival was going on in case of Edelweiss since Jun 2008 till it broke out of 63.5 levels in Jan 2015.

The breakouts in case of rounding bottom suggest that stock will gradually lead to its high price which was there just before it fell heavily prior the formation of rounding bottom. In case of Edelweiss this high is also an all time high at 179.50.

After breaking out of resistance at 63.5 in Jan 2015 the stock could not sustain above it. We can attribute the reasons of non-sustenance to falls in broader Indian markets and global markets.

As you can see on Monthly chart enclosed with this article, the stock is again trying to move above the resistance near 63.5. Today it is trading near Rs 70. For medium term buyers who are willing to wait for a period of 1-2 years the stock has potential to earn more that 100% returns from current level.

I have also enclosed daily chart with support and resistance levels. Short term traders can buy this stock at current level and accumulate till levels of 62 (if it corrects till that level). In short term the stock has potential to reach to price of 98. That can gives us returns of 30%. 

Nifty Analysis for 23 May

Nifty is trading near support on daily chart. Lets expect a bounce from current levels to start the day with. First resistance is at 7777. (This was critical support earlier). Sell on rise Nifty near 7777. If Nifty moves down from here it can take first support near 7752 and then at 7710 Markets can be choppy today. Click here to read Nifty view for the week. Nifty 15 min Chart    Swing/positional trades for the day: Buy UPL for target of 595. Stoploss is 560 Buy Voltas for target of 340. Stoploss is 323 Sell LIC Housing Finance for target of 432. Stoploss is 452   Recent gainers recommended by us Pidilite Industries breaking out -now up 8% from recommended price (Read Pidilite article written on 3 March) SKS Micro Finance up 16% from buying price (Read article written on 25 Apr) Berger Paint up 17% from buying price M&M Financial Services up 32% from buying price (Booked) (Read article written on 12 April)

Next Batch on Stock Markets and Technical Analysis (On-line Mode) The training will be conducted by Traders Coach Unmesh Deshmukh. Unmesh's training style is appraised by many stalwarts in the field. This result oriented course is for beginners as well as experienced traders who wish to learn trading / investing using practical aspects of Technical Analysis. Only 10 participants. Training Days are: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 9th and 10th June Timing : 11 am to 1 pm Course Fees: 4500/- only Click here for all the details Call on 09371444875 for more details