Tata Communucation - Ready for a Flag Breakout

Tata Communication is trading in broad range since begining of November. An ascending triangle on weekly scale is formed with this 2 month long consolidation. Observe the activity in volumes this week. Possibility of a breakout?

Fortis - Rectangle breakout

Fortis is breaking out of 10 months long rectangle. Here is weekly chart of Fortis, though the weekly candle is not closed as the week is yet to complete. We can anticipate that it will close with the nice breakout.

ACC - a double top and now a double bottom

ACC monthly chart below. Looks attractive specially because of low risk.

SRF - obeying the support

SRF Weekly chart. This is a classic pattern. A rectangle breakout is being tested. Expect a rise in demand here.

Havells - On a bouncing spree after a nice Correction

Ready to spell a new move after a nice correction. Weekly time frame.

Asian Paints - not yet late

This post can also be treated as a followup post to my earlier post - 

5 hot stocks & their levels- to 'enter' during correction

Asian Paint is one of the stocks I had recommended at that time. Check its recent reaction on the chart below. 

Sriram Transport Finance - Buy Cheap

 At current levels Sriram Transport Finance is available at a discount of a 40%.
Strong support area and price till next price hurdle has lot to offer. Weekly time frame here.

Ajanta Pharma - Time to grab

This post can also be treated as a followup post to my earlier post - 

5 hot stocks & their levels- to 'enter' during correction

Ajanta Pharma is one of the stocks I had recommended at that time. Check its recent reaction on the chart below. 

Havells - beginning of trend change

Cerebraint - A breakout

Voltas Limited - Seem to be ready for short term gains

A typical structure is formed on Voltas today. The stock has closed above its earlier top. The earlier top is marked with a black arrow on chart. This hints us at a change in trend from current down trend to an uptrend for short term.
Increase in volumes hinting at an increased buying in this stock.

Entry in the stock to be managed properly as a small pullback can not be denied from current levels.

The upcoming resistance areas are marked with red line on chart.

Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up.  

Reliance Industries Ascending Triangle

Reliance Industries

A frustrating consolidation continues in this large cap. This consolidation is referred to as Ascending Triangle. A breakout is expected after the consolidation. This time since this is an ascending triangle the breakout can be on upper side of the price. 

I have started creating small  videos in Hindi on the same topic. To check video click this link

https://youtu.be/KBuSgll3tSs 

Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up.  

Deep Industries - Fresh breakout to uncharted territory

Deep Industries caters to the services required by Oil and Gas companies like ONGC and Reliance.

Friday's chart shows a fresh breakout in Deep Industries.
This breakout has come with large volumes. The stock is ready for next move. Breakouts are followed by consolidations. We do not know whether to stock will continue the movement or it will pause for a consolidation. I have marked the support areas on chart below. Entry levels can be tricky.

Entry 1- 285.45
Entry 2- 278
Entry 3- 261

When trading breakouts, the Risk Management becomes more important. However this pattern can give some quick gains.

To understand the risk of buying breakouts, you can read this article-

Buying 'Breakout' Vs buying 'Near Support'

Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up.  

You don't need 90% success ratio to make profits

 To begin with (for those who are new), lets spend some time in understanding as to what is a 'Success Ratio" in trading. Success ratio is nothing but the number of winning trades out of the total trades taken.

For example - If a trader takes total 10 trades, books profit in 7 trades and book loss in 3 trades, his Success Ratio is 70%. As he has 7 winners out of 10.
Or
Suppose a trader takes 100 trades in one year. He books profit in 65 trades and books losses in 35 trades. Then his success ratio is 65%.

Now since we know, what the success ratio is, lets move on to understand why am I saying that you don't need 90% success ratio. Let me put this statement this way- you don't necessarily need beyond 65% success ratio to make money in markets.

However, on the contrary, most traders / investors in stock markets are obsessed with high success ratio. They feel Analysts and Researchers have methods to precisely predict the stock movement. This is why many advisers and tip providers try to take an advantage out of this situation. Most of them claim that they have more than 90% success ratio. I am not saying that the research is not required. However, giving undue importance to research and ignoring some other important aspects of trading can be a blunder.

You have to finally break your belief and trust that Risk Management and Money Management are the most important aspects of making money in trading. If I have to weight Research against Money and Risk Management in trading- I would give weight of 60 out of 100 to Risk and Money Management. I would give a weight of only 40 out of 100 to research.

Look at how a simple Risk Management Technique can benefit traders-
The technique is called as Risk Reward Ratio. (Stoploss to Target Ratio)

Here is an example of a trade-
Stock A recommended to be bought at Rs 150 which has a stoploss of 140 and a target of 180.

Risk = Entry-Stoploss = 150-140 = 10
Reward= Target - Entry= 180-150= 30

So the Risk Reward Ratio in case of Stock A is RR Ratio= Risk/Ratio= 10/30 or 1:3.
This means that trading in stock A has risk of Rs 1 for Reward of every Rs 3.

Here is Why I am saying that you don't need 90% success ratio to make profits in market.

Say, a trader takes 10 trades during a specific period of one month. Here are 3 different scenario with different Winning Ratio and same Risk Reward Ratio.

Scenario 1- 
Winning Trades- 7
Loosing Trades- 3

This means the Winning Ratio is 70%

Lets assume all the trades have RR Ratio of 1:3. It means each trade profit's Rs 3 in each winning trade and looses Rs 1 in losing trade.

So Reward (Profit) = 7 (winning trades) * Rs 3 (profit in each trade) = Rs 21 (This is profit ignoring transaction charges)
Risk (Loss) =  3 (loosing trades) * Rs 1 (loss in each trade)= Rs 3 (This is loss ignoring transaction charges)

Total Profit = 21-3 = Rs 18

Scenario 2- 
Winning Trades- 5
Loosing Trades- 5

This means the Winning Ratio is just 50%

Lets assume all the trades have RR Ratio of 1:3. It means each trade profit's Rs 3 in each winning trade and loses Rs 1 in losing trade.

So Reward (Profit) = 5 (winning trades) * Rs 3 (profit in each trade) = Rs 15 (This is profit - ignoring transaction charges)
Risk (Loss) =  5 (loosing trades) * Rs 1 (loss in each trade)= Rs 5 (This is loss ignoring transaction charges)

Total Profit = 15-5 = Rs 10 
It means you can make profits even if you have 50% profitable trades.

Scenario 3- 
Winning Trades- 3
Loosing Trades- 7
( I am sure even with little analysis one can achieve this)

This means the Winning Ratio is just 30% and trader is losing out on 70% of the trades.

Lets assume all the trades have RR Ratio of 1:3. It means each trade profit's Rs 3 in each winning trade and loses Rs 1 in losing trade.

So Reward (Profit) = 3 (winning trades) * Rs 3 (profit in each trade) = Rs 9 (This is profit - ignoring transaction charges)
Risk (Loss) =  7 (loosing trades) * Rs 1 (loss in each trade)= Rs 7 (This is loss ignoring transaction charges)

Total Profit = 9-7 = Rs 3
Wow that's the news. Even a poor fellow with 30% winning trades (Success Ratio) is making profit.

And this is what it is.

You don't need 90% winning trades to make profits in market. You need proper Risk Management along with proper Money Management.

In my Trading Advisory Application the focus is on Risk and Money Management. Trading Advisory Application is an online tool built by us to reach our subscribers with detailed reasoning of and analysis of a trade. Here you will find that every recommendation is coupled with an analysis and reasoning. The trading style is – Positional with delivery in cash segment. Objective is to make 30% to 50% profit during the year.

Click here to know more details.

Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up

Range breakout in Quess Corp can yield 16%

Quess Corp is a Technology Services, Staffing Services, Industrial Asset Management and Facility Management provider. The company is listed in July 2016.

Lets analyse Quess Corp on Technical Chart from short term trading perspective.
After its listing in July 16 the stock was trading in a broad range. This range is between 520-630.

We know breakouts can yield fast gains if traded with proper risk management in place. For those who are new to Technical Analysis- breakout is a large movement in price couple with high volumes taking stock to a new trading range.

Here are two different chart views of Quess Corp. Both the views are on Daily time frame.
The first chart below is closer picture.

Two things to observe here. (1) Today dated 29 Nov the stock has taken out an important resistance near 630. (2) The volumes are substantially higher as compared to the volumes in recent past.

The second chart below is a relatively larger picture.

On the larger picture here are the observations. (1) There are 3 failed attempts to breach the resistance near 630. First attempt on 5 Aug 16, second on 7 Oct 16 and then on 21 Oct 16. All the attempts failed to take the stock to new highs. However these repeated attempts weakened the resistance.
(2) The stock after its listing in July 16 has never traded below its listing price.

Based on above analysis our Premium Subscribers are recommended to buy Quess Corp. The detailed money management parameters like % of total trading capital to be utilised, Entry points and Risk Management parameters like stoploss multiple targets are updated to them.

Here are basic exit levels for all the readers.
Stoploss: 610
Target: 790


I had recommended a Buy in UJAAS to my premium subscribers on 28 Nov. The stock is now trading with a gain of 10%.

If you wish to regularly trade fast moving Mid and Small caps along with regular update/view on Nifty, subscribe to my Premium Services here.

Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up. 

Swing call analysis of 3 Large Cap stocks to finish Nov-16 series on a positive note

I usually prefer to adhere to trades on 'Positional' time frame. However, sometimes market offers opportunity of some quick trades. I feel current market scenario may be one such opportunity. I am referring to an expected bounce in Nifty.

Lets take a moment to understand set up of Nifty and its chart. Its just 2 days for Nov series to expire. In these 2 days we can expect short unwinding in Nifty futures. Nifty trading near support on weekly chart. Today's hammerish candle pattern on daily chart suggesting bulls are in action. Nifty is trading in oversold zone. All these points make me believe that there is a case for a bounce in Nifty. No one should forget we are just talking about a possibility here. Major trend is still down and hence one should have strict risk management in place.

 Here are 3 Swing Calls. All are on long side. Since this article is written on 22nd evening I am considering the entry price as closing price of 22nd Nov. On all the charts below I have marked entry, stoploss and target lines. The levels given below are cash levels. If you wish to trade these stocks in Futures you will have to adjust the price accordingly.

Reliance Industries: 

If you look at the larger picture, you will find that Reliance is trading at lower end of trading range. This lower end is acting as support for Reliance. Stock has refused to fall to a large extent during recent pressure in broader markets. You can see some increase in volumes too. Buy Reliance Industries near 1001 with a stoploss of 980 and target of 1025.

HDFC Ltd:
One of the low Beta stocks from Nifty family, HDFC Limited is showing the signs of a bounce from current level. As you can see on the chart the stock is trading in oversold zone near a support. It has also confirmed a Piercing Candlestick pattern on daily chart. Stock trading away from its 50 dma. This makes a case of a possible bounce. One can buy HDFC Ltd near 1250 with a stoploss of 1224 for a target of 1280.

Hindalco:
On larger (monthly) time frame, Hindalco is seen on the verge of a breakout. For this breakout to sustain Hindalco can show a quick upward move on smaller time frame. A nice extended candle with piercing pattern tells that bulls are back in action. Maintain a stoploss at 158 and Buy Hinalco near 166.50 for a target of 178.5

 Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up.  

  

5 hot stocks & their levels to enter during correction- An update

You might have read my article ‘5 hot stocks & their levels to enter during correction’ which I had written on my blog in Sep 2016.

Many of my readers requested me for an update on the stocks which I had recommended in that article. Here is update on all the 5 stocks-

To check my premium services click here

1.     Ajanta Pharma:

The stock has corrected almost 8.5% from the levels when I has published my last article. Currently the stock is trading near 1876. My recommended levels to buy were 1700-1650-1565. There is still some more wait for these levels to come. We can best expect that we shall get those prices, at-least the first one at 1700. If the stock moves down to 1720 kind of level, I would recommend you to start accumulating Ajanta Pharma.

2.     Asian Paints:

The stock has corrected by almost 12% since the time of last article. Now trading near 1043. The stock has reached its first support level, precisely at 1025, as recommended in earlier article. One can start accumulating at current levels in small quantity. Further levels, which I would be looking forward to are 970 and 920.

3.     Pidilite Industries:

Pidilite has registered a low of 648 in Sep. Hope to get the same or even better levels to enter again. I am looking forward to 625. Let’s see.

4.     Tata Motors:

The earlier levels which I had mentioned were 470 and 425. Stock is currently trading at 512. We still have some wait here. In case of Tata Motors, now it seems unlikely that the stock will correct to 425, unless there is some negative news. A level near 470 is a level which I would be looking forward to.

5.     Ultratech Cement:

The levels to enter are supposed to be around 3300. Good stocks corrects very little as usually the demand is high. So as is the case with Ultratech Cement. So far it has corrected only 6% from its top. However its not a good idea to enter at dearer price. Patience is the key here. You never know, you will get a discounted price near 3300.

Here is my philosophy of entering into a stock near support. I feel more comfortable when stock start showing (some) gains immediately after I enter the stock. When we take an entry near the support, it is unlikely that the stock will move further down- at-least it will not move down to large extent. In similar context you may wish to read Buying 'Breakout' Vs buying 'Near Support'

I believe in making keeping the things simple. If you wish to trade/invest in deliver based stocks over medium term- Prime Cash can be an ideal solution for you.

Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up.  

6 stocks Techno-Fundamental portfolio for Diwali-16 to Diwali-17

Diwali is a festival of prosperity. May all your wishes come true. I wish you a very happy, healthy and wealthy Diwali 2016.

Last year during Diwali -15 I had given 3 Diwali picks. Hope you would have benefited from it. All the 3 picks reached their targets.
You can refer last year's Diwali Picks article here. 

This year I have created a portfolio with a mix of Large, Mid and Small Caps with a horizon of one year. Hope this works well. You are advised to read the disclaimer below this article before investing/ trading this portfolio.

This portfolio is available to our Premium subscribers as well as to Free subscribers. However, possible entry levels with proper followup is available only to Premium subscribers.

To subscribe to our premium services click here

1. Alkyl Amines Chemicals Ltd.
The stock has formed nice anticipated continuation wedge on monthly scale. Volumes are showing substantial activity. Stock is trading at a PE of 15.
Stoploss: 310
Target: 570 & 660

2. Gufic Biosciences Ltd.

I love this pattern. A correction after breakout. Correction takes back the stock to an important support. The demand increases and the rally resumes.

Stoploss: 35

Targets: 55 & 71

3. HCL Technology: 

Swimming against the stream. HCL Tech chart is different as compared to all other IT companies. Trading near good support. Demand is expected to rise here.

Stoploss: 730

Targets: 940 & 1030

4. V2 Retail: 

Technical bet among all odds. Clean rounding bottom without a substantial resistance nearby can take this stock to our targets.

Stoploss: 115
Target: 235 & 360

5. Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL): 
Govt of India enterprise, a giant. A ascending triangle formation can lead to the stock to new highs.
Stoploss: 1180
Target: 1565& 1710

6. Premco Global Ltd: 
This one is a microcap textile company. Technicals and Fundamentals looks quite well placed. Trading volumes are less. However seems to be a good potential stock.
Stoploss: 555
Targets: 810 & 940

Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up.  

Signet Industries - On the verge of Cup and Handle Breakout

Signet Industries, a company in Plastic Products.

The stock as seen on chart below is on the verge of a breakout This pattern is known as Cup and Handle pattern. The name Cup and handle arrived from its shape similar to a cup and its handle.

The same is marked on the chart. Typically the volumes increase just before breakout, that is during the handle phase.

In this case if the stock breaks out, has potential to reach its next resistance near 61. This is potential move of 41%

Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up.  

Dr Lal Pathlab Limited (LALPATHLAB) - Sweet Spot

Dr Lal Pathlab a recent listing has been a slow mover since its listing in Dec 15. It has given us first breakout in  Aug 16.

After breaking stock has nicely corrected till the level of 990.
Currently stock is trading at a sweet spot near 1122.

I have marked possible zones on chart below.

Weekly Chart:

Daily chart:

Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up.  

Nifty - Channel formation

This is classic case of channel formation in Nifty

Cineline India Ltd (CINELINE) - A fresh breakout

You can see weekly chart of Cineline India Ltd. A fresh breakout on weekly scale is seen. 

Recent winners from my portfolio

Its been a while that I have been sharing my views and analysis over mail. This analysis is free for all the subscribers. However, simultaneously I am running premium service for my paid subscribers. Premium service includes following things:
1. A model portfolio of Small/Mid and Large Cap stocks.
2. Analysis (along with charts, stoploss, entry and target) of additional stocks which are not there in model portfolio. Most of these stocks are form F&O segments

Find below how we have done in recent past:
I had recommended following stocks (over and above model portfolio stocks to my paid subscribers). Here is the result of the stocks recommended:
Ceat Ltd recommended on 2 Sep at price of 952 for targets of 998,1043 and 1095. All the targets are done here. Total gain at highest target is 15%.

Jain Irrigation recommended on 10 Aug at price of 77 for targets of 82,91 and 107. Recommended to book profit around 93. Total gain at this target is 20%

ICICI Bank recommended on 19 Aug at price of 253 for targets of 258 and 270. All the targets are done here. Total gain at highest target is 7%

There are some more stocks however it is not possible to give a list of all the stocks here.
Currently the stock on hold is Trigyn Technologies.
All above stocks are over and above what I add through model portfolio.
To check what we have done in portfolio last month, refer the table below:

I offer this Premium service at cost of only Rs 9900/- for one year and Rs 5900 for 6 months. This is a very low cost as compared to current market trend. I believe a disciplined approach can make money in stock markets. Hence everything here is well planned and nicely executed.
If you wish to be a part of my Prime Services click this link to subscribe:

In case you have any questions- whats app / call me at 9371444875

Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on above write-up.

 

Cerebra Intergrated Technologies Ltd. (CEREBRAINT) - Chart Speaks

Nice structure formation on daily chart. This is for a short term view and quick anticipated gains.
The chart is self explanatory.

Dalmia Sugar - What Next?

A typical formation on monthly chart in Dalmia Sugar suggests a nicely trade-able range.
Zone formation:
Demand at 100-84
Supply at 147-168